Where will Russian new offensive take place, or has it already begun? Serhiy Zgurets' column

Possible Russian army offensive directions

Where will the Russian new offensive be, or is it already underway? President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently reported, based on intelligence data, that the Russian army is preparing for a new offensive in one or possibly three areas, in particular in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Currently, there are different versions of the assessment of the Russian aggressor’s future actions.

The first version is that the Russian forces can carry out offensive actions by concentrating on only one direction. They are currently unable to focus on several directions at once because of their previous losses. Until recently, the Pokrovsk direction was the center of gravity of Russia's efforts. Now the number of attacks in this direction remains quite high, but against the backdrop of effective defense by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian troops looking for a new point to concentrate their efforts. 

A number of experts agree that this will be the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The first step towards this goal is to try to advance towards Kostiantynivka from different directions, as this settlement is an important logistical hub for the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Donbas. We are also talking about the northern chain of fortresses - Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk. The Russian activity on the Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, Lyman and Zaporizhzhia directions is only an attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces and prepare for actions in the direction of Kostiantynivka.

The second version of the assessment of events comes from the commander of the 3rd Assault Corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Andriy Biletskyi. He believes that Russia's main strategy now is not to achieve operational success, but to deplete the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the entire front line. The tactic of “small cuts” should lead to a weakening of the front and create the preconditions for its collapse. Although this is unlikely to succeed, such a strategy could lead to simultaneous actions by Russian troops on many fronts.

Given the changes on the map over the past few days and the reports from OSINT analysts, we can make two emphases. The first is the Lyman direction, in particular Borivske, where Russian troops are advancing to the two settlements of Katerynivka and Nove, which form a narrow strip on the map.

Ukraine Russia war live map, March 22-29, Photo: Espreso

The threat is that the capture of Nove, which is the dominant height, poses risks to Lyman's logistics from the north. Russian troops may act to complicate the defense of Lyman in the future. This is combined with the efforts on the western bank of the Zherebets River and advance along the Terny-Iampolivka-Torske line, which could pose a threat to Ukrainian Siversk salient.

The second focus is on the situation in the Kurakhove direction, now Novopavlivka direction. Despite significant losses, Russian troops are advancing toward Rozlyv.

Rozlyv is located south of the Kostiantynopil-Bahatyr highway and is an important strategic point, as the capture of this territory could pose a threat to Ukrainian garrison in Kostiantynopil. In the future, everything will depend on what forces and resources the Ukrainian General Staff will have to effectively counter the Russian actions. Perhaps they will use the tactics that were successful on the western and eastern flanks of Pokrovsk, where they managed to stop the occupying Russian troops.

There are currently no grounds for a ceasefire on the ground. The frontline realities remain unchanged. Russian troops are trying to use their superiority in manpower, and the Ukrainian defense is using all means to inflict maximum losses on the enemy forces and prevent their advance deeper into Ukraine. This reality remains the same in all frontline areas, although there are some differences in certain areas.

Prydniprovskyi direction

Yesterday, March 31, the spokesman for Ukraine's Southern Defense Forces, Vladyslav Voloshyn, said that Russian activity, including drone activity, has increased in this area. In the Kherson region, Russian FPV operators are even hunting Ukrainian children. On the left bank, Russian troops have set up a so-called FPV drone pilot training center and are training civilian Ukrainians. This threat has existed for a long time.

Roman Pavlenko, commander of the unmanned systems battalion of Ukraine's 153rd separate mechanized brigade, stated that Russian forces are actively deploying remote mines using FPV drones. They are utilizing PFM-1 anti-personnel mines, also known as "lepestok," which pose significant dangers due to their difficulty in detection. Local residents and vehicles frequently encounter these mines. While a vehicle may lose a wheel, individuals suffer severe injuries, often necessitating immediate evacuation. Even with prompt medical attention, this typically results in the loss of a foot or even a leg up to the knee.

The battalion commander emphasized that identifying Russian drone operators is the top priority, and they are immediately targeted once detected. The Russians are similarly focused on hunting Ukrainian operators. Infantry movements are less of a concern, allowing for free movement on both sides. However, drone operators are not spared, and every available resource is used to eliminate UAV crews. The commander highlighted that the modern battlefield is a race between drones and electronic warfare, with both technologies constantly evolving. Electronic warfare devices are deployed along the entire front line, requiring constant adjustments in routes, frequencies, and tactics. Russia continues to use guided bombs, launching them up to a depth of 10 km. These bombs are not highly accurate, but the Russians do not distinguish between civilian and military targets when using them.

The officer noted that Russian soldiers are often wearing civilian clothes without insignia, making it challenging to distinguish between civilians and enemy forces. They have occupied Ukrainian territories where local residents remain, prompting the Ukrainian Armed Forces to exercise caution when carrying out fire damage tasks. UAV operators play a crucial role in tracking when Russian troops use collective weapons or engage in actions near their fortifications, such as moving along trench lines or entering and exiting dugouts. Once Ukrainian drones confirm the presence of enemy forces, they carry out strikes. Additionally, there have been isolated incidents of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups attempting to cross rivers, but Ukrainian forces have successfully thwarted these attempts.

Pavlenko explained that several companies supply Ukrainian units with large bomber drones and FPV systems. However, it's important to note that FPV drones vary significantly between manufacturers, so pilots need several days to adjust to a new model from a different company. FPV systems are not just drones; they include ground stations, repeaters, and controllers, which require time to learn and properly set up, creating a challenge. While many manufacturers are providing products to the front, a key question is how these devices are being approved for use by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian UAV operators have compiled a list of companies that supply subpar products, forcing the military to spend significant time and resources refurbishing these drones. While there are no issues with unifying combat units, a major concern is the high percentage of defects in the equipment being supplied.