Russia will seriously talk about peace in fall, political analyst says

Political analyst Serhiy Taran expressed this opinion on Espreso.

"Russia's objective is not to reach an agreement, but to buy time. Accordingly, the Russian side is not handing over the memorandum. The Americans say that the negotiation process needs to move from a dead point, because even the mere fact that Russia and Ukraine will be talking about something is a step forward. 

This is the logic of Western diplomacy, although we clearly understand that talks with Russia alone will not solve anything. Of course, our strategic goal will be to maintain a united position with the West and with Trump. I think that Russia does not rule out serious negotiations, but probably in the fall, when the summer campaign is over and Russia's offensive potential is exhausted," the political analyst commented.

In his opinion, Russia will seriously talk about peace in the fall, because its rhetoric regarding Trump is very cautious. Everyone can hear how Putin speaks about Western leaders and how delicately he talks about Trump. If the Kremlin didn’t care and wasn’t planning to reach any agreements with Trump, they wouldn’t be paying him compliments.

"The Kremlin understands that Trump holds a powerful sanctions leverage. Accordingly, if the U.S. really wants to, there are tools to influence Russia - especially now that oil prices are falling globally, creating a favorable international environment for pressure on the Russian Federation. That’s why I think the Kremlin realizes that sooner or later it will have to negotiate, and most likely this is being planned for the fall. For Ukraine, it’s important to maintain a united position with the European countries and the U.S., because when these serious negotiations begin, Ukraine will need to have a common stance with Western leaders regarding Russia," Taran concluded.

Ukraine-Russia peace talks: background

On May 16, a trilateral meeting of delegations from Ukraine, the U.S., and Turkey took place in Istanbul, followed by direct negotiations between representatives of Russia and Ukraine. According to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, the key issues were a prisoner exchange in a “1000 for 1000” format, the possibility of a ceasefire, and a potential meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.

On May 19, Donald Trump, after a conversation with Vladimir Putin, announced the immediate start of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. However, on May 20, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that there were no timelines for preparing a peace memorandum. Later, on May 22, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared that Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not have the authority to sign a peace memorandum and that Ukraine must elect a new president.

On May 27, U.S. President’s special representative Keith Kellogg announced that Washington had received a document from Ukraine outlining conditions for peace and is now awaiting a memorandum from Russia. He also mentioned a possible location for future negotiations between the parties. On the same day, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan proposed Istanbul as the venue for a new round of talks between Russia and Ukraine.

On May 28, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that an announcement about a new round of talks between the Ukrainian and Russian sides would supposedly be made soon. At the same time, Dmitry Peskov noted that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is possible only if concrete agreements are reached. He also added that work on the Russian draft memorandum is almost complete.

On May 28, Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that Rustem Umerov had called Putin’s aide, Vladimir Medinsky, but the Ukrainian side still has not received a memorandum from Russia. After this, Lavrov stated that the Russian delegation is ready to present their memorandum at the second round of talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs believes that the Russian side is delaying the peace process aimed at ending the war.