New details on Engels airbase strike and Black Sea navigation agreement. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Coalition of the Willing meeting in France: outcomes

A meeting of the Coalition of the Resolute was held in Paris yesterday, with representatives from 31 countries participating. The meeting focused on further support for Ukraine, strengthening its defense industry, and mechanisms for a ceasefire. Initial results of the meeting are already emerging. In particular, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that a French-British mission would be sent to Ukraine to work on strengthening the Ukrainian army. They are tasked with developing recommendations to enhance the defense capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The mission’s authority and composition are still unclear. It was also stated that European forces should be deployed in Ukraine as a deterrent to Russia, but such a scenario would be possible only if a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached. According to Macron, these forces could consist of military personnel from EU member states and would be stationed in strategic locations in Ukraine. This coalition would be led by the President of France and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Another outcome of the Coalition of the Resolute meeting is that European foreign ministers must submit proposals within three weeks regarding the monitoring of a ceasefire regime between Ukraine and Russia. All these statements are extremely important. However, just as crucial is how these statements will be implemented on a practical level.

96 cruise missiles destroyed in strike on Russian Engels-2 airbase: new details revealed

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that as a result of the Defense Forces' strike on the Russian Engels-2 airbase, Russia lost 96 Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles. The strike, carried out by Ukrainian drones, caused significant destruction around the strategically important Russian airfield. Many buildings and warehouses intended for missile storage and preparation were heavily damaged, with most of these structures destroyed. Satellite images taken after the strike clearly show the results of the detonation. It is evident that the Defense Forces' strike was quite powerful. The General Staff also stated that, according to military assessments, the missiles were intended for three missile strikes on Ukrainian territory during March and April of this year. It is worth noting that Russia's production rate of Kh-101 missiles is more than 50 missiles per month.

There is another interesting detail about the strike on the Russian Engels-2 airbase. This airfield hosts Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers, which Russia uses to carry out strikes on Ukrainian territory. It is a strategic airfield where air-launched cruise missiles are also equipped with nuclear warheads. Missiles like the Kh-55 and Kh-102 are fitted with nuclear warheads. Near this airfield is the so-called Object C, which is intended for storing nuclear warheads for cruise missiles. It is unknown whether nuclear warheads are actually stored there, although the facility is indeed adapted for this purpose. In any case, this indicates that the Engels-2 airbase should have better air defense systems. However, it is also worth noting that this is not the first strike by Ukrainian forces on this airfield, and they have been quite effective. Even British intelligence has recognized the strike on Engels-2 as one of the most effective drone strikes by Ukraine in 2025. I am confident that there will be other "more interesting" strikes on Russian territory that will surpass the effectiveness of the strike on the Engels-2 airbase.

Conditions for restoring free navigation in the Black Sea

Captain 1st Rank Reserve of the Ukrainian Navy, strategic expert at Sonata, and former Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ukrainian Navy (2004-2020) Andriy Ryzhenko explained that Ukraine must restore freedom of navigation in the Black Sea. This is a strategic goal for Kyiv. To achieve this, Ukraine should use any available tools. If a temporary ceasefire allows for the restoration of free navigation in the Black Sea, Ryzhenko noted, Kyiv should take advantage of it. He identified three key components for restoring navigation. First, Russia must stop missile attacks on Ukrainian ports and maritime infrastructure, particularly Odesa. Next, all Ukrainian ports must reopen for free navigation, as currently ports in Ochakiv, Mykolaiv, and Kherson are blocked. Lastly, vessels passing through the western part of the Black Sea should not be threatened by Russian weapons.

In other words, Russia must stop attacking, blocking, or seizing these vessels. These components align with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. According to Ryzhenko, the agreement that has been supposedly made is interpreted differently by Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia. Each country comments on the situation according to its own perspective. Russia demands the removal of sanctions in exchange for adhering to the Black Sea navigation agreement, particularly sanctions imposed by the European Union.

Russia should be banned from using weapons in the Black Sea

Andriy Ryzhenko believes that dividing the Black Sea into controlled parts will not significantly help restore free navigation, as Russians could still damage ships and ports from the eastern part of the sea. They have ships, submarines, and aviation for this. Ryzhenko emphasized that control could be limited by a certain meridian, as the city of Sevastopol, located in the western part of the Black Sea, hosts Russian ships that pose a threat to navigation. While these ships are not new, they can use strike weapons against civilian vessels. Ryzhenko explained that an important decision would be to prohibit Russian ships from using weapons against ships, as their presence in any part of the Black Sea is of limited significance, given that modern technology can easily track their location.

Ukraine's condition for Black Sea ceasefire: 'no actions against Ukraine'

The Boyko Towers were initially used for their intended purpose. However, according to Ryzhenko, there is no longer a need for them. Later, these platforms were used by the Russians for reconnaissance. After the strike on the platforms, all the reconnaissance equipment was destroyed. Ryzhenko believes that the Russians no longer need these oil platforms for control and reconnaissance in the Black Sea. They have their own means to control navigation in the Black Sea. Specifically, to quickly block navigation from Ukraine, they can use land-based and air-based missiles located in the occupied Crimea.

Additionally, the Russians maintain a certain number of boats and ships on the territory of the peninsula. Ryzhenko also added that the corridor through which vessels from Odesa travel to Romanian ports and the Bosphorus Strait is very unfavorable for the Russians. However, it is also not ideal for Ukraine, as it does not cover all of Ukraine's shipping possibilities. He noted that in order to adhere to the agreement on free navigation in the Black Sea, the Russians simply need to do nothing against Ukraine. For them, following the agreement is actually very simple. Ukraine, on the other hand, needs to focus on mine clearance along the shipping routes and in port areas.

Andriy Ryzhenko also believes that Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey, after a ceasefire is established, could assist Ukraine in locating and destroying sea mines in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. This part of the sea is shallow, and there could be many sea mines there. Additionally, Ukraine has received small platforms as part of the naval coalition. These platforms can be equipped with special devices for locating sea mines.