Massive drone attack on Crimea serves as 'prelude' to May 9 parade in Moscow. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Night drone attack on Crimea

“The largest drone attack on Crimea in 2025” is how the occupation authorities of the peninsula describe yesterday's night attack by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The enemy claims that 120 drones were shot down. However, video from the scene shows hits on airfields in Crimea used by the Russians. Explosions were recorded at the airfields - presumably Saki, Kacha, Hvardiyske, possibly Belbek and definitely Dzhankoy. This indicates a targeted attack on the Russian important operational and strategic infrastructure.

Data from NASA services also confirm fires at military sites in Crimea. Some drones were also headed toward Yevpatoria.

Such attacks are always complex. If the enemy claims 120 drones were shot down - 20 over the sea and 100 over the peninsula - it likely means the actual number of UAVs was much higher. Typically, the first wave uses cheaper drones to distract air defenses, followed by anti-radar missiles and strike drones. However, this attack was even more sophisticated.

A video from the HUR unit Prymary, which operates drone systems, suggests they likely carried out the recent sea drone attack, launching FPV drones that destroyed Russian radars and certain air defense systems. Based on the footage, at least four combat and standby-mode radars - used for missile guidance across various air defense systems - were destroyed, along with two S-300V launchers. This indicates the attack on Crimea was carefully planned in several stages, and the results are expected to be quite positive.

I’ll also add that this is a kind of fitting May “prelude” ahead of the May 9 parade on Red Square in Moscow. Russia wants a temporary truce for the parade, while Ukraine is talking about real steps toward a lasting ceasefire and creating genuine conditions for a long-term end to hostilities - not just a pause during Russia’s “Victory Day hysteria.” We’ll see how these attacks on Crimea develop further.

April frontline results

We already have some statistics summarized by Ukrainian OSINT groups. According to DeepState, in April, Russia seized 175 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Let me remind you that in March this figure was 133 square kilometers.

Ukraine Russia war live map, April 25 - May 3, Photo: Espreso

If you look at the maps, there were several areas where the Russian troops were advancing the most. Although these kilometers were taken by the Russians with heavy losses, we will talk about this later. 

Ukraine Russia war live map, April 25 - May 3, Photo: Espreso

Speaking about the directions, we note that it is primarily an advance south of Kostiantynivka and west of Toretsk. This is the area where the Russian 8th Army is advancing. In the area of Sukha Balka and Kalynove, the Russian troops captured approximately 50 square kilometers. Fighting also took place in the areas near Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil, where the occupiers seized about 40 square kilometers. In total, these and other areas totaled 175 square kilometers. At the same time, the Russian losses in manpower amounted to 36,420 people killed in April.

These are not the highest figures, and there have been much higher figures before. But if we compare the number of losses per square kilometer captured, April demonstrated the highest cost to Russia in this ratio.

The occupiers also suffered significant losses in automotive equipment, including motorcycles. The figures in this area are the highest for the entire period of hostilities. In addition, a large amount of artillery was destroyed. Its destruction rate is the second highest in the entire period of hostilities.

The use of guided aerial bombs by the Russians is worth mentioning separately. In April, they used 5,200 units of guided bombs, which is a double increase since the beginning of this year. This shows that the Russian forces are using guided bombs as one of the elements of influence on the Ukrainian defense line.

Frontline situation - Novopavlivka sector

Next, we'll talk about what's happening on various parts of the front, as the intensity of fighting increased in April compared to March. While in March there were an average of 50–70, sometimes up to 100, combat clashes per day, in April this number reached 150, and at times even 200. In other words, the Russians are now actively trying to intensify hostilities across multiple directions. One such area is the Novopavlivka sector, which remains extremely challenging.

Denys Bobkov, senior communications officer of the 37th Separate Marine Brigade in the Novopavlivka sector, said the situation remains tense but under control. The Russian aggressors have achieved neither tactical nor operational success in the brigade's area of responsibility. Russian forces continue to attack in small infantry groups, trying to identify weak points in Ukrainian defenses. On May 1, all assault attempts were made on foot, without the use of motorcycles. However, the Russian troops do frequently use motorcycles, relying on their mobility and speed to move units quickly.

The serviceman added that Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance has spotted Russian armored vehicles. It’s still unclear whether the Russians are holding this equipment in reserve or simply don’t see a reason to use it yet. Whenever enemy vehicles do appear, they are quickly destroyed by FPV drones and precise artillery fire. As a result, the enemy is currently avoiding the use of heavy armor in combat, instead favoring infantry assaults supported by motorcycles and buggies.

It’s no secret that the enemy has a numerical advantage in manpower, which is why they rely on straightforward tactics - launching frontal assaults on Ukrainian positions. There’s little evidence of any complex strategies, maneuvers, or planning on their part. Although enemy aviation isn’t very active, they do drop 2–3 guided bombs (KABs) over several days. Last month, there were more frequent KAB strikes targeting both front-line positions and rear settlements.

Bobkov spoke about training on Swedish-made Combat Boat vessels, noting that the equipment is excellent and highly maneuverable. Ukrainian-made boats were also used during the exercises. Regular joint training sessions were held with the Navy, giving soldiers without prior experience in boat-based combat a clear understanding of how such operations are conducted.

Recruitment is underway for the 37th Brigade. There are already three battalions that are half formed, and most of the soldiers have undergone basic military training. Two units have completed their training, and one is already participating in combat operations. This is the unmanned systems battalion, whose soldiers are already working on the front line and have demonstrated many defeated enemy targets. The brigade has vacant positions: medics, drivers, infantrymen, drone operators, signalmen - all are welcome to join the 37th Brigade.