Front moves deeper into Russia: why Ukraine is fighting in Belgorod, what Kursk has to do with it

Content

1. Belgorod region and Ukraine
2. Previous raids on the Belgorod region
3. Actions in the Kursk region led to active hostilities in the Belgorod region
4. What Ukrainian experts say 

Espreso explains what is known about the actions of Ukrainian forces in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, why they are being carried out and what successes they have brought. 

Belgorod region and Ukraine

Belgorod region is a historical and geographical area that includes the present Belgorod Oblast of the Russian Federation, located on the border with Ukraine. Its area is about 27,100 square kilometers, with a population of around 1.5 million. The administrative center is the city of Belgorod, and the region borders Ukraine's Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk regions, highlighting its close ties to Ukrainian lands, as it is part of the historical Slobozhanshchyna.

The emergence of Belgorod as an inhabited territory dates back to the times of Kyivan Rus, when these lands were part of the Chernigov principality. In the early Middle Ages, the region was inhabited by the Severyans, a Slavic tribe that settled the area along with settlers from what is now Sumy Oblast. Later, in the 16th–17th centuries, these lands became part of the defense line of the Moscow Tsardom against nomads, and the city of Belgorod is officially considered to have been founded in 1593. However, the region's history is closely linked to Ukrainian colonization, as Cossacks and settlers from Ukrainian lands played a significant role in populating the area, seeking free lands.

It is important to emphasize that the Belgorod region is ethnically and historically Ukrainian. Most of its lands (with the exception of a few northern districts) were part of the Ukrainian national territory, and in 1918, the Bilhorod district was even part of the Ukrainian People's Republic and the Ukrainian state under Hetman Skoropadskyi. The Soviet government finally transferred these lands to the Soviet Union in the 1920s, but this does not negate their Ukrainian roots. 

Previous raids on the Belgorod region

Since the beginning of the full-scale war, artillery duels and the activities of sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been ongoing on the Ukrainian-Russian border from both sides. However, the history of significant combat operations in Belgorod region dates back at least to 2023, when on May 22, armed groups, including the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, operating within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, crossed the border and carried out a successful large-scale raid in the Grayvoron district.

At that time, it was reported that several settlements, such as Kozinka and Gora-Podol, were captured, and there was also an advance towards the district center of Grayvoron. According to representatives of the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate, these actions were aimed at creating a "security zone" to protect the civilian population of Ukraine from shelling from Russian territory. The Russian authorities labeled this as an invasion by a "Ukrainian sabotage group," although official Kyiv distanced itself from direct involvement, emphasizing that the operation was carried out exclusively by Russian citizens.

The events of 2023 were episodic and did not lead to a prolonged occupation of the Belgorod region. Ukrainian forces or related groups quickly withdrew after short-term raids. However, the situation unfolding in the last few weeks of this year has a different character – this is, in fact, the first documented advancement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces several kilometers into Belgorod Oblast, followed by the establishment of positions.

Actions in the Kursk region led to active hostilities in the Belgorod region

As reported by the Washington Post, in August 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region, capturing significant territories. At the same time, attempts were made to secure positions in Belgorod Oblast. However, after several months of fighting, under pressure from Russian forces reinforced by units from North Korea, Ukrainian units were forced to retreat from Kursk, leaving most of the captured territories.

In response to the loss of ground in Kursk, Ukrainian forces launched a new operation in mid-March, this time in the Belgorod region, actually 11 kilometers from the point of operation in Kursk.

Russian military bloggers were the first to report this, writing about the battles for such villages as Demydivka, Popovka, Grafovka, and Prylesie. On March 18, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Ukrainian Armed Forces units “attempted to penetrate” the territory of the Russian Federation in the western part of the Belgorod region in the direction of the settlements of Demydivka and Prilesye, claiming that 200 Ukrainian soldiers and 29 pieces of military equipment were involved, and that they “prevented the border from being broken through.” 

On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking to journalists in Kyiv, actually confirmed the operation. 

“There is an operation: someone came out, someone seems to have run away, and someone went somewhere else. These are absolutely clear strategic steps we are taking as long as the enemy is on our territory,” the President said.

Zelenskyy also noted that Ukrainian troops had taken “certain steps” in Russia outside the Kursk region to ease pressure on Ukrainian troops in the area. The goal, he said, was to “reduce the accumulation” of Russian troops and the operation took place “just below the Kursk region.” On March 30, President Zelenskyy explained that the Ukrainian Defense Forces remain active on Russian territory to “prevent the occupiers from entering the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.” 

In its report of March 24, the American Institute for the Study of War noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces “launched limited attacks in northwestern Belgorod Oblast on March 18.” The very next day, on March 25, the Deep State monitoring project, which tracks soldiers' movements on a map, marked about 13 square kilometers of the Belgorod region, which borders Sumy and Kursk regions, as disputed land where the situation is uncertain. It is generally a forested area with few settlements. 

On March 31, Deep State published footage of Ukrainian aviation strikes on military targets in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. On the same day, a video of the destruction of an ammunition depot in the Belgorod region was posted online. Earlier, on March 21, the Ukrainian Air Force eliminated the control center of a Russian border outpost in the Belgorod region, and on March 24, the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine reported that, in cooperation with the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, the Rocket Forces and artillery, they destroyed two Russian Ka-52 helicopters and two Mi-8s in the Belgorod region. In addition, several other successful attacks were reported. In general, Ukrainian attacks on military facilities in the Belgorod region have become much more frequent in recent weeks. 

On March 18, the head of the National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko, said that Russians had pulled troops to the border in the Belgorod region, so the Defense Forces “are acting and neutralizing threats to the territory of Ukraine.” And on March 24, he essentially distorted the same statement, noting that “the defense of the border of the Sumy region continues” due to “the accumulation of Russian troops in the territory of the Russian Federation.” 

In early April, during a hearing at the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, General Christopher Cavoli, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, confirmed that the Ukrainian army was fighting in the Belgorod region “with varying success.”

"In Belgorod Oblast, a few weeks ago, Ukrainians carried out a small counteroffensive towards Russia. Therefore, battles with varying success are still ongoing in this area," said Kavoli, adding that the Russians have not completely driven Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region.

According to unofficial reports, Ukrainian forces used drones, artillery, and engineering units to break through Russian defensive lines, leading to the capture of some territory and the establishment of defensive positions. This operation also has a psychological impact on Russian command, forcing them to redeploy some forces to protect their own borders, thus diverting their strength from other areas.

Analyzing the situation, Emil Kastehelmi, a military expert from the Finnish Black Bird Group, told Reuters in late March that Ukrainian troops had broken through the first Russian defenses and advanced to a depth of 3 to 4 km. He also added that it was unlikely that they would make a major breakthrough and threaten any important Russian logistical routes or cities in the region. 

"There's no proper element of surprise, and the Russian presence in the area is strong enough to at least conduct mostly successful defensive operations.The Ukrainians can, in theory, take some more villages from the border area, but that's not what a breakthrough means - it'd be a small tactical success, but there's very little to be achieved in the Demidovka direction at operational or strategic level," he told Reuters.

What Ukrainian experts say 

Despite the tactical successes, analysts believe that the Ukrainian advance in the Belgorod region is of limited strategic importance, as the depth of penetration is relatively small and holding positions in enemy territory requires significant resources. However, this operation once again demonstrates Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive actions outside its borders, which may be important not only for the defense of Ukraine's border, but also for peace negotiations.

Oleksiy Hetman, a reserve major of the National Guard of Ukraine and a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, told Espreso that during the Belgorod operation, Ukrainian Su-27s supported by Mirage and F-16s bombed bridges behind Russian troops' positions, complicating their retreat and logistics. 

“The destruction of the bridges similarly served as the beginning of the Battle of Kursk, which led to significant successes. The operation is important and is most likely an attempt to create another sanitary or buffer zone deep into the territory of the Russian Federation,” he said. 

According to him, the operation opens up opportunities for counterattacks, as the Russians are likely preparing an offensive in the spring on the Sumy, Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia directions, which is confirmed by intelligence. However, Hetman doubts a full-scale Russian offensive along the entire front due to a lack of forces, so effective operations can focus on 2-3 areas.

According to Serhiy Zgurets, director of the Defense Express media and consulting company, the fighting in Kursk and Belgorod regions has an “internal interconnected intrigue.”

“We know that after the withdrawal of some Ukrainian units from the Kursk region, our troops organized a new line of defense. Some of the brigades that fought in the Kursk region are carrying out offensive actions near a number of villages in the Belgorod region,” the expert said. 

He added that in the Belgorod region, Ukrainian units broke through the border on March 18, suffering losses of armored vehicles, captured Demydivka and, probably, Popivka, and attacked Prylissia. The military carried out demining with Soviet UR-77s, opening passages for the offensive.

 Zgurets also emphasizes that the actions in the Belgorod region are connected to Kursk region: it is an attempt to stretch the Russian forces, make it impossible to redeploy troops, complicate the offensive in Sumy region and the use of drones by the enemy, creating uncertainty for the Russians. The expert notes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine operate up to 2 km from the border, relying on logistics from Ukraine, which creates problems for the Russians. 

“The Russians will have to react with some kind of action: either to accumulate forces in this area or to take other measures. Although the enemy has no other measures to influence our military,” the analyst summarizes. 

Ivan Stupak, a military expert and SBU officer in 2004-2015, said on Espreso that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation in Belgorod region is much smaller than the one in Kursk region. 

“This is not an offensive towards Belgorod. This is a limited operation, much smaller in scale than the operation in the Kursk region. The main goal is to divert the attention of the Russian armed forces and reduce the pressure on the Sumy region, which is currently suffering,” says Stupak.

According to him, several villages in the north of Sumy region are already under Russian occupation, so it is necessary to mitigate the ongoing enemy offensive, as “the situation is really very difficult.”

Meanwhile, military expert and co-chair of the Prava Sprava NGO Dmytro Sniehyriov

 told Espreso that operations in Russia have prevented about 70,000 Russians from being transferred to Ukraine. 

"What is the result of the Belgorod operation? Operational reserves have already been withdrawn from the Kursk direction, and the transfer of operational reserves from the Belgorod region itself has been blocked, preventing the expansion of the theater of operations into the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. The operational and tactical grouping 'Belgorod' of the occupying country's armed forces consists of up to 60,000 personnel. In total, we estimate that the Russians are currently unable to deploy up to 70,000 troops to Ukraine, including the Kursk grouping of their own army units. Is it worth it? In my opinion, more than that," the military expert said.