ISW: Pace of Ukraine's counteroffensive does not indicate deadlock at front

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports about this.

“Ukrainian forces conducted slow and gradual interdiction campaigns against Russian concentration areas in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and limited ground attacks on the west (right) bank between August and November of 2022, before finally forcing the Russian withdrawal from the right bank in mid-November”, reminded the Institute.

It is noted that the situation in southern Ukraine is different, because there is no natural bottleneck of the sort created by Russian reliance on the two bridges over the Dnipro. 

The report says that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson alternated between phases of relatively rapid advance with long periods of preparation, battles focused on depleting Russian forces, and limited successes that ultimately made Russian positions on the west bank of the river untenable.

“By contrast, the Russian winter-spring offensive culminated in just over one month without making significant gains along the Luhansk-Kharkiv Oblast border. The current Ukrainian counter-offensive is less dramatic and rapid than the one that liberated much of Kharkiv Oblast, more successful than the failed Russian winter offensive, and generally most like the slower but ultimately successful Kherson counteroffensive in its pace and initial progress”, the ISW noted.

What is known about the Ukrainian counteroffensive

On June 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive on the southern frontline, continuing a series of offensives near Bakhmut and in other directions.

On June 11, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced the liberation of Blahodatne, Neskuchne, and Makarivka settlements, near the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. On the morning of June 12, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that the Ukrainian state flag was raised again over Storozhove, Donetsk region.

On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

On June 26, Hanna Maliar reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced 1 to 2 kilometers on the eastern frontline in the past week. During the offensive in the southern direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated 130 square kilometers. On June 26, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had de-occupied the village of Rivnopil, Donetsk region. 

British Defence Minister Ben Wallace stated that Ukraine has already liberated more territory as part of the summer counteroffensive campaign than Russia had captured during the entire winter offensive.

But Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that the already liberated settlements were not the "main event" but rather the prelude to a major counteroffensive.

On the morning of July 3, Hanna Maliar reported that the Defense Forces advanced in the southern and eastern directions. Over the past week, the Ukrainian military liberated about 38 square kilometers. 

On July 4, it was reported that Ukrainian military forces were advancing on the southern flank around Bakhmut in Donetsk region and in the south.