The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared its analysis in the usual report on Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine.
“Russian forces’ likely capture of Soledar on January 11 is not an operationally significant development and is unlikely to presage an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage posted on January 11 and 12 indicates that Russian forces likely control most if not all of Soledar, and have likely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the settlement,” the ISW report says.
Experts noted that the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on January 12 largely did not report that Ukrainian forces had repelled Russian attacks on Soledar compared to the reports a day earlier. Russian sources claimed that Russian troops were clearing Soledar. And Russian bloggers on January 12 posted footage of Wagner mercenaries walking freely in Soledar and claimed that they had entered the town with Russian troops.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statement on January 12 that Ukrainian forces are maintaining their positions in Soledar could mean holding defensive positions nearby, but not in Soledar itself, ISW believes.
“Russian information operations have overexaggerated the importance of Soledar, which is at best a Russian Pyrrhic tactical victory,” the ISW experts say.
It is noted that the capture of Soledar - a settlement with an area of just over 12 km2 - will not allow the Russian occupying forces to control the critical Ukrainian ground lines of communication with Bakhmut, and will not improve the position of Russian troops surrounding the city in the near future.
“Russian forces likely captured Soledar after committing significant resources to a highly attritional tactical victory which will accelerate degraded Russian forces’ likely culmination near Bakhmut,” the ISW claims.
However, Russian troops may decide to maintain a "consistently high pace" of the offensive in the Bakhmut area.