Putin revives 'Kyiv in three days' plan as Trump considers several options - political analyst

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"In a recent interview, Trump sent a message to Putin, stating that if no peace agreement is reached and Russia is deemed responsible, serious tariffs and renewed sanctions on Russian oil will be imposed. We need to understand why this statement was made. The first reason is that the people of the United States do not understand why Trump is not attacking Putin. I should mention a sociological study that is not related to Ukraine, but is very revealing: 57% of Americans oppose making Canada the 51st state, 49% are against Greenland joining, and only 20% strongly support Trump’s actions without question. Therefore, he had to say something more or less understandable about Putin," explained Vadym Denysenko.

He believes the second reason is that Trump realizes Putin is stalling, making it necessary to accelerate the process. Notably, Trump recently made a statement about devastating bombings of Iran. However, he remains uncertain about his ability to pressure Putin, who has no intention of halting his military campaign.

"Trump understands that he needs to take action but leaves room for maneuver by suggesting that Putin may not be entirely to blame. At the same time, he allows himself leeway — he can always shift focus to another issue. Trump has already stated that he will speak with Putin, but no significant agreements will come from it; at most, they may agree to another round of negotiations. These talks will likely continue for a month, until May. After that, Trump has several options. The first is to shift the blame onto Ukraine — an unlikely but possible scenario that we must keep in mind, as this period will be extremely challenging for us. The second is to downplay the situation while continuing minimal support for Ukraine. The third is to impose serious sanctions on Russian oil exports," the political analyst commented.

He believes that if the third option is chosen, Trump will need to consider how to replace Russian oil in the Indian market. However, this process will take time, with the minimum estimate being 6–9 months. As a result, Putin assumes he has a window of opportunity for military actions in 2025.

"Even if Trump imposes these sanctions, Putin will continue the offensive in 2025 because he has once again come up with the idea of 'Kyiv in three days.' The Russian leader believes that the Ukrainian army will collapse in the summer offensive. In my opinion, this is complete nonsense, but for some reason, he believes it. And when these sanctions are imposed, the real global problems in the Russian economy will show up in the spring of 2026. As of today, Putin wants to continue the war in 2025 and will do everything in his power to conduct a summer military campaign. It should also be noted that the key negotiations this year will be between Trump and Xi Jinping, where Russia will be needed. Therefore, Putin believes that, in this regard, Trump will also delay the imposition of such sanctions," said the political analyst.

Denysenko added that Putin is determined to carry out a summer military campaign, and the only thing that can stop him is not Trump's sanctions, but the fear of the threat to his own life.

• On March 26, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Russia wants to "see an end" to the war in Ukraine and sign a peace agreement, but they are likely "dragging their feet."
• On March 30, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Iran with bombings and additional tariffs if Tehran did not reach an agreement with Washington regarding its nuclear program.