Where Russia will build new defense line after Ukraine recaptured Urozhaine - military expert’s forecast

Defense Express’ CEO, Serhiy Zgurets told Espreso about this.

"Urozhaine is near the previously liberated Staromayorske. This is another point that allows us to further develop the offensive in the Berdyansk direction. Now the main defense line begins near Urozhaine, at a depth of 13 km," he said.

Zgurets added that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have passed the front line and are approaching the main defense line, which begins behind Staromlynivka.

"Now the enemy is trying to build a defense line - Remivka, Volodyne, Staromlynivka and Kermenchyk. There, the Russians are now trying to pull up and hold their units, which are focused on restraining the further advance of Ukrainian troops. I think that they will be fortifying south of Urozhaine, where they are trying to dig in in a new way. Now there will be a promising task for Ukraine's artillery to continue to fulfill its main mission - to make it impossible to strengthen fortifications and use certain units of the Russian army," the expert believes.

He noted that there are also dynamics in the other direction - Melitopol.

"There are hostilities in Robotyne and at the junction between Robotyne and Verbove. There are intense hostilities there. It is important that these two areas create significant tension for the Russian Federation, which is trying to compensate for this by deploying reserves. They are being moved even from the Kherson direction. Some strategic reserves are now being transferred to the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region in an interim version. This suggests that the enemy is ‘unpacking’ its strategic reserves," Zgurets said.

The expert added that, on the other hand, Ukrainian new brigades equipped with Western equipment are also appearing in the Robotyne area.

"We are also pulling up forces on Ukraine's side to ensure the build-up of capabilities, in particular from Robotyne and beyond. And there's Tokmak near there, and this Vasylivka-Tokmak-Kamianka-Volnovakha transport connection line, which, if controlled, can be used to significantly complicate the enemy's use of the connections. This will be another factor that will make it more difficult for them to defend the occupied territory," he summarized.

Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive in the south: chronology

• On the morning of June 12, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had liberated 7 settlements and advanced 6.5 kilometers.

• Later, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense officially confirmed the AFU  liberated Pyatykhatky in Zaporizhzhia region. Units in the Tavria direction advanced up to 7 km.

• On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

• On June 26, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had de-occupied the village of Rivnopil, Donetsk region. It is located in the Volnovakha district of the Donetsk region. The Russian army occupied the village in March 2022.

• On July 5, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy established ten military administrations in Zaporizhzhia region and appointed their heads.

• On July 13, the General Staff reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had some success in the areas of Novodanylivka - Shyroka Balka; Mala Tokmachka - Novopokrovka.

• On July 27, the 35th Separate Marine Brigade together with the 129th Brigade liberated the village of Staromayorske in Donetsk Oblast.

• On July 29, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar announced successes in the Berdiansk and Mariupol directions.

• On July 31, it was reported that during the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian military liberated more than 204 square kilometers of territory in the south, and another 37 square kilometers in the Bakhmut direction.

• On August 1, Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman Oleksandr Voitko said that fighting for Pryiutne and Novodonetske was ongoing west of Vuhledar.

• On August 4, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that the Defense Forces had already broken through the first line of defense in the south and moved to the intermediate line.

• Brigadier General Dmytro Hereha, Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Support Forces, said that in the occupied territories, Russian forces have set up a multi-echelon system of engineering barriers, which consists of several strips of 10 to 40 km each with a fairly high density. This causes difficulties for the Ukrainian Defense Forces in conducting offensives in the southern direction.

• On August 10, it was reported that the Defense Forces had partial success near Urozhayne and Staromayorske, and were entrenched near Bakhmut.

• On August 15, the spokesperson for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Andriy Kovalov, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had succeeded in the direction of Urozhaine and were consolidating their positions.

• On August 16, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported that the Ukrainian military had completely liberated Urozhaine in the Donetsk region. Defense forces consolidate their positions