Ukrainian Armed Forces destroy Russian battalion during offensiv. Military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Frontline situation

While everyone was watching Prigozhin's march on Moscow, the eastern grouping of the the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an offensive in the area of Bakhmut, towards Orikhove, Vasilivka, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, and Kurdyumivka. 

This was reported on June 24, and on the 25th, Colonel Andriy Biletsky, the commander of the 3rd Separate Motorized Infantry Battalion, announced the details of the offensive. He said that the brigade's soldiers repelled 1 km of trenches from the Russian Federation. The Russians resisted fiercely, fighting in the trenches at a distance of 1-2 meters. 

The defenders of Ukraine managed to clear the territory of the enemy. Ultimately, the soldiers defeated the 3rd Battalion of the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Federation, which effectively ceased to exist. 

First, they completely destroyed the 72nd Brigade. Now, they are destroying the 57th. I think the same will happen to the Russian paratroopers who are trying to compensate for the absence of Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut. According to Biletsky, the western bank of the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal has been completely cleared of the enemy, and there is no enemy stronghold. 

Valeriy Shershenn, the spokesperson for the Defense Forces on the Tavria direction, responsible for Marinka and Avdiivka, said that the enemy attempted active combat actions in the area of Marinka but in vain. 

Russia tried to drop chemical ammunition on our units, but the wind blew in the opponent's direction. In the south, the fighting continues in well-known settlements. No information has been received from the General Staff, although there is active dynamics in certain directions. We will find out when the results come.

Prigozhin's mutiny

I cannot help but recall how Prigozhin's forces advanced towards Moscow, covering 800 km in just a few hours, shooting down a significant number of Russian helicopters and transport planes. However, the campaign ended in less than a day. Military expert and director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, Mykhailo Samus, pointed out that we only saw what was on the surface. Simplified constructs regarding the Prigozhin project have always existed, as if it were just a private military company, and Western experts fail to understand that parallel armed forces cannot exist in Russia without permission or supervision from the leadership of the Presidential Administration or individuals associated with the FSB or AP (Presidential Administration).

The West does not sense the reality of Russia and the Putin regime. Wagner private military company was created by the GRU and the Russian General Staff. It performed tactical tasks, including special operations. 

After making money in Africa and being active in Syria, the FSB joined in. The political impetus for Prigozhin came from the AP. It was a controlled and organized show by a part of the AP and its entourage, aimed at weakening the Putin regime or demonstrating to him that his position was very weak. Perhaps another faction, along with the President of Russia, decided to negotiate with those who claimed they could stop the Wagner mercenaries. This is a typical extortion tactic: create a problem and offer to solve it in exchange for certain concessions. 

This may weaken Shoigu and Gerasimov, who are also supported by someone. In any case, it weakens Putin's role. Next, we may witness political shifts towards those who are trying to stop this war, no matter how paradoxical it may sound. Many people say that Patrushev is leading them. Obviously, he is a powerful and intelligent individual. This person can play a very dangerous game, including with the West. 

Putin should show his dictatorial skills. The country began to crumble, and Russia showed no stability. Armed individuals were simply out of control. 

There was no reaction from the State Duma Committee, as well as towards the Prigozhin forces. It doesn't matter who stands behind them, but what Ukraine, facing Russian aggression, and the West, which is very afraid of Putin, see. 

And he cannot establish control over a small territory. Generals discuss issues with Wagner PMC. Downed helicopters, and planes... It's absolute absurdity. Against this background, Putin needs to show strength, but he is ridiculous with his appeals. Obviously, he is backed by shaky structures that cannot respond to his statements. They are pushing Putin towards negotiation. This show is intended to show him the need for negotiations. He will be told that the war has failed, and there are channels of communication with the West that will propose mechanisms for resolving the situation. Ultimately, Putin will be handed over to The Hague. The countdown has already begun. Those who want to seize power will then build new relationships with the West and Ukraine, dreaming of preserving the corrupt KGB-style regime, as any other option will lead to the collapse of Russia. For us, this is a positive process. The aggressor country was supposed to disintegrate from within its own power apparatus. The morale and motivation of Russian forces are beginning to decline.

Reaction of the West to the coup attempt in Russia

Many leaders, especially in the West, have cold feet. What they have feared and what had been happening in the USSR for 30 years has now begun in Russia. Imagine that with his approaches and speeches, Prigozhin seizes power in Russia, having control over the world's largest nuclear potential. The West should invite Ukraine to NATO because there is no longer a reason to fear Russia. There is chaos, groups of people trying to save lives because they have lost the war, and there is a certain window of opportunity to stabilize the situation.

NATO is afraid of escalating the war with Russia, but this is a strategic mistake if the mindset in Vilnius does not change. It will lead to missing the chance. If Ukraine is invited to NATO, we, along with the Alliance, will develop several crisis management plans after the transformation of Russia, to ensure control without negative scenarios. Currently, we are considering the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, while in Russia, there are vast amounts of nuclear and chemical weapons. All of this can become uncontrollable. The issue of NATO should be raised again.

Pressure on Russia from the United States and China

The Chinese factor is interesting. China viewed Russia not as an ally but as a military instrument, believing it had a serious army before the full-scale war. They demonstrated this in Syria and Africa, but Ukrainians showed that it was a fake. Then China planned to use Russian resources, but after the coup attempt, the matter remains uncertain. For China, the United States is the main competitor. China and the United States are siamese twins, interconnected industrially, economically, and financially, which we tend to forget. They are perhaps the closest countries in the world. China is trying to find new opportunities for economic development in its relations with the United States against the backdrop of the technological revolution. After the coup attempt in Russia, its position in China's strategy will undoubtedly weaken. Russia is a territory with resources, which means its position in the world will further decline as China pushes it aside. China's partners will see this, and consequently, Russia's authority and Putin's standing will decrease even more. This is a significant blow to the regime and its ability to avoid sanctions when the West tightens the noose around Russia, which relied on trade with India, China, and their partners. Currently, only North Korea, which declared support for Putin, and Iran, which sent another batch of "shaheds" to Russia, remain.