Ukraine is capable of striking 1000 km into Russian territory - military expert Serhiy Zgurets 

Enemy record losses

The General Staff of Ukraine records the number of enemy losses. On February 7, Russia lost a thousand soldiers over the course of one day for the first time: 1030 soldiers in one day, which means nearly 21 000 soldiers were liquidated over the past month; this is a record number. We hope that this record number will soon become the daily norm. Such losses basically are a consequence of the enemy engaging more forces along the entire frontline. Also, more armored vehicles were destroyed over the past day: 14 tanks and 28 armored personnel carriers. It may be assumed that a number of these were destroyed near Vuhledar, as evidenced in a video of Russian tanks exploding. Waiting for more stories of this sort. 

Strizh performance

More good news. Last year at the airbase near the city of Saky, Crimea, at least 9 Russian military planes were destroyed. Then, the distance to the front line was more than 200 km. Again, the strikes on the Engels-2 military camp with strategic bombers in the Saratov region – more than 1000 km away. Now we finally have the first confirmed fact that modernized Soviet Tu-141 Strizh drones with a flight range of up to 1000 km and a payload of up to 150 kg could be used for such strikes. We have these reconnaissance drones, and before the war they were used as high-velocity targets for air defense system training.

Strizh became a combat drone. How come? It can be seen from yesterday's photos of a drone crashed in the Kaluga region, Russia. Although, it is difficult to call this specific Strizh performance effective, since it crashed at a 300 km distance from our border, deep into the territory of the Russian Federation and 150 km from Moscow. It might have crashed because it was flying at a very low altitude.

The photos of a crashed drone were taken in the forest and prove that the Tu-141 Strizh with the OFAB-100-120 aerial bomb was precisely used for a strike mission. The OFAB-100-120 impact bomb itself is a regular 123 kg aviation high-explosive bomb. It is designed to liquidate personnel, equipment and military echelons.

The bomb fragments may fly off at 100 m distance. The bomb is placed in the front part of the drone, where the reconnaissance equipment should be, and this is a reasonable and budget solution. There is no need to create a special combat weapon. Combat drones with such bombs travel to a certain target by coordinates. This Strizh performance was not praised in Ukrainian media, but we can draw two conclusions: firstly, Ukraine has the means to strike 700 km deep into Russian territory. Saky and Engels have already proven this. 

The question remains about the number of Strizh drones in stock. The second point to consider is that the drone fell at a 150 km distance to Moscow and the Russian air defense missed it. Russian air defense remains quite poor, and it’s good. Yesterday, in an interview with CNN, the NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that Ukraine has the means to strike Russian territory. He was definitely talking about Strizh drones and more: we are currently waiting for the Ukroboronprom attack drone. Its capability to strike at a 700 km distance and to reach Moscow was actively discussed. We are still waiting, but, fortunately, not Ukroboronprom alone is engaged in weapon supply.

Scale of new Russian offensive

Military expert Mykhailo Samus believes that Russian propaganda will definitely try to make use of the information about possible Ukrainian strikes on Russian military facilities. Our strikes in turn should be military, not psychological. The Russians thought that striking Ukraine's energy infrastructure would demoralize Ukrainians, but it turned out to have the opposite effect. With our attacks we should first of all reduce the Russian military potential.

Russia has activated in Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Lyman. Russians are trying to push the Ukrainian defense in Donbas - this is both a political and a military task. This is what the Russians have planned, because the Russian army cannot physically afford a large-scale strategic operation. They are not even preparing for this – we can see the situation in Belarus and in the Kharkiv region. Russian propaganda claims that they will also target Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa in a large-scale strategic offensive. This is just Russia trying to manipulate our morale and psychological stability, nothing more.

If we analyze the real state of affairs, we can see that Ukrainian command is in control of the situation in Bakhmut and the Donbas in general. So we should disregard Russian propaganda. In terms of economy, Russia already has a 60% budget deficit compared to January 2022 – this is a real catastrophe. It is obvious that the Russian economy will soon undergo terrible disruptions, and Russian leadership will not be able to freely use their resources. I predict it will take six months for Russia to try and resolve the occupation of Donbas issue, to declare it a victory and admit that they are ready for talks, pushing the West to force the Ukrainians to start negotiations.

The military expert also added that the accusations about a CIA director had allegedly flown to Moscow and Kyiv and offered to exchange 20% of the territories for peace are a reflection of this Russian plan. The Russian leadership throws out the idea that we will exchange the occupied territories in exchange for declaring Russia the winner. That we will agree to something like that. That Russia won’t pay any reparations, that Ukraine will be prohibited from joining NATO and so on. This is Putin's attempt to escape the disaster he has driven himself and Russia into on February 24, 2022, but I am sure he will not succeed. We are being armed, the political and military decisions are being made, so it is obvious that Ukraine and the allies won’t agree to this. Russia is trying to use every opportunity to influence Ukraine and our Western partners into coming to an agreement and preventing a major Ukrainian offensive. If they occupied Donbas by April, they would have a chance to avoid the Ukrainian offensive.