ISW: Russia will not manage to seize Donbas by March, contrary to Putin’s wishes 

It was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Experts state that the Russian army does not have enough power to defeat the AFU in the east and to do Putin’s bidding by occupying more than 11 300 square kilometers of the Donetsk region by March. 

A new major Russian offensive is likely to end prematurely before achieving significant operational results by April 2023, during the rainy season.

"The culmination of the Russian offensive might then create favorable conditions for Ukrainian forces to start counteroffensive with Western tanks in service in late spring or summer 2023," the report said.

ISW also sees no indication that an additional 200 000 people were mobilized covertly, although it is possible.

"The mobilization of 300 000 Russian citizens has caused grave domestic social imbalance and security issues, and the subsequent covert mobilization of another 200 000 people is likely to cause more visible problems," experts note.

• GUR reported that Putin set Gerasimov the task of seizing Donbas and creating a "security zone" by March.