Russian military command wants to replace Wagner group with Kadyrov units in offensive operations in Ukraine — ISW

The Russian military command may have ordered the forces of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov to launch an offensive in Ukraine after the Wagner PMC withdrawal from Bakhmut

This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.

It is noted that on May 31, Kadyrov stated that the Chechen forces received new orders and are now responsible for the front line in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. He called on the Chechen units to start "active combat activity" and "liberate a series of settlements."

Kadyrov added that Chechen “Akhmat” Special Forces (Spetsnaz) and the “Sever-Akhmat” Special Purpose Regiment transferred to the Marinka direction southwest of Donetsk.

"The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also claimed that assault detachments of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and Akhmat Spetsnaz conducted offensive operations in the Marinka direction," the report said.

Kadyrov noted that the Russian military command ordered Russian, Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard), and Chechen Akhmat forces to begin offensive actions along the frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts as well. Kadyrov stated that these units have already begun tactical preparation for these offensive actions and emphasized that they began even before the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops.

"ISW has observed no indications of Chechen offensive operations in Zaporizhia or Kherson as of this writing," the Institute wrote.

According to the ISW, Chechen forces remained mostly in reserve after the fighting in Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, and their active participation was limited to some offensive operations in the Bilohorivka area of the ​​Luhansk region.

Analysts also recorded how Kadyrov fighters acted as police forces in the rear in the occupied territories of southern Ukraine and conducted local combat intelligence operations in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Kadyrov also claimed that 3,300 personnel of the “Sever-Akhmat” Regiment were in Chechnya as of May 8, and ISW assessed that Kadyrov may have been conserving his forces instead sending them to the frontlines.

"Chechen units’ limited participation on the frontlines alongside Kadyrov’s heavy emphasis on recruitment may suggest that Kadyrov is hesitant to commit his forces to grinding offensive operations in Ukraine despite his ultranationalist narratives," the report said.

It is noted that “if Kadyrov’s claims that he has 7,000 troops in Ukraine are close to accurate his forces will not be able to mount multiple significant offensive operations successfully.”