Russian military command wants to replace Wagner group with Kadyrov units in offensive operations in Ukraine — ISW

This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.

It is noted that on May 31, Kadyrov stated that the Chechen forces received new orders and are now responsible for the front line in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. He called on the Chechen units to start "active combat activity" and "liberate a series of settlements."

Kadyrov added that Chechen “Akhmat” Special Forces (Spetsnaz) and the “Sever-Akhmat” Special Purpose Regiment transferred to the Marinka direction southwest of Donetsk.

"The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also claimed that assault detachments of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps and Akhmat Spetsnaz conducted offensive operations in the Marinka direction," the report said.

Kadyrov noted that the Russian military command ordered Russian, Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard), and Chechen Akhmat forces to begin offensive actions along the frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts as well. Kadyrov stated that these units have already begun tactical preparation for these offensive actions and emphasized that they began even before the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops.

"ISW has observed no indications of Chechen offensive operations in Zaporizhia or Kherson as of this writing," the Institute wrote.

According to the ISW, Chechen forces remained mostly in reserve after the fighting in Mariupol, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, and their active participation was limited to some offensive operations in the Bilohorivka area of the ​​Luhansk region.

Analysts also recorded how Kadyrov fighters acted as police forces in the rear in the occupied territories of southern Ukraine and conducted local combat intelligence operations in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Kadyrov also claimed that 3,300 personnel of the “Sever-Akhmat” Regiment were in Chechnya as of May 8, and ISW assessed that Kadyrov may have been conserving his forces instead sending them to the frontlines.

"Chechen units’ limited participation on the frontlines alongside Kadyrov’s heavy emphasis on recruitment may suggest that Kadyrov is hesitant to commit his forces to grinding offensive operations in Ukraine despite his ultranationalist narratives," the report said.

It is noted that “if Kadyrov’s claims that he has 7,000 troops in Ukraine are close to accurate his forces will not be able to mount multiple significant offensive operations successfully.”

• On May 20, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian PMC Wagner, released a video claiming that the Russians had fully occupied the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. In response, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maliar stated that heavy battles were taking place in Bakhmut, and the situation was critical. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops maintained the defense in the area of the southwestern entrance to the city.

• During the evening and morning briefings of the General Staff on May 20 and 21, ongoing battles for the city were discussed. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the city at midnight on May 21.

• On May 21, Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar announced that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had partially encircled Bakhmut, creating an opportunity to defeat the Russian forces. The enemy in the controlled part of the city was forced to defend itself. On the same day, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the Ground Forces, stated that Ukrainian soldiers were making progress on the flanks in the suburbs of Bakhmut and were approaching the city for a tactical encirclement. Serhiy Cherevatyi, the spokesperson for the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, highlighted that Ukrainian defenders had advanced approximately 200 meters in some areas near Bakhmut on Sunday. Additionally, they continued to hold the southwestern part of the city.

• On May 22, Serhiy Cherevatyi, the spokesperson for the Eastern Group of Forces, reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had advanced even further near Bakhmut, reaching a distance of 200 to 400 meters.

• On the morning of May 23, the General Staff of the Armed Forces announced that the enemy was continuing offensive operations in the Bakhmut area, and the battles for the city were ongoing.

• Prigozhin announced on May 25 that the withdrawal of units from Bakhmut had begun, and by June 1, the positions would be handed over to units of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

• On May 27, the Institute for the Study of War stated that the Ukrainian military had effectively gained the initiative in the battles around Bakhmut.

• On May 29, units of the occupier's airborne troops and motorized rifle units arrived in Bakhmut to replace the Wagner fighters.