Russia will regroup and resume offensive around Avdiivka and Marinka — military expert Zgurets
Serhiy Zgurets, Defense Express CEO and military expert suggests that Russia's political priorities in the areas of Avdiivka and Marinka currently take precedence over military priorities
He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.
"When we talk about Avdiivka, the Russians conducted this operation according to all the canons. I would avoid the thesis of ‘meat assaults’ because this operation was prepared with all the right approaches, using artillery, aviation, and mechanized units. All these enemy efforts were repelled by drones, minefields, and anti-tank weapons. The enemy's actions were planned in advance, and those that came from two directions, both north and south, were well-organized, in my opinion. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian side effectively repelled these attacks," the military expert commented.
According to him, there is information that during these six days of attacks, Russia suffered significant losses, with estimates suggesting at least 3,000 personnel casualties.
"There are areas where our defense system could be improved to prevent the enemy's advance, especially from Krasnohorivka. While we have strong fortifications and knowledge of potential enemy attack routes, there should have been greater vigilance exerted in controlling these areas, especially those from Krasnohorivka. Nevertheless, the results are quite acceptable, considering the enemy's ongoing troop reorganization. I am confident that the enemy will resume offensive actions in this area, particularly around Avdiivka and Marinka," noted Zgurets.
Zgurets added that now, once again, Russia's political priorities in this area prevail over military priorities.
"In my opinion, the Russian military command will do its best to achieve some success around Avdiivka to confirm the Russian narrative that despite the assistance of Western countries to Ukraine, the Russian army is advancing in certain areas, and the Ukrainian offensive is slow. The political component will dominate the offensive on Avdiivka and Marinka. I think that in a short period of time after a certain regrouping we can expect further offensive actions of the enemy in this area," summarized the expert.
Russian offensive on the key city of Avdiivka in eastern Donetsk region
On October 11, the Institute for the Study of War noted that the Russian occupying army had intensified its offensive around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. The city has been a frontline one for almost 10 years, and now Russian troops are trying to encircle it.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that in the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled 10 attacks near Avdiivka and another 8 attacks east of Stepove and southeast of Sieverne in the Donetsk region.
The head of Avdiivka City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash, reported shelling of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, which killed an elderly man and wounded two civilians.
On October 12, experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) named the real reasons for the Russian offensive on Avdiivka.
Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, noted that Russian troops are trying to concentrate their forces north of the city, launching assault operations.
On October 13, the ISW reported that in three days, Russian troops had captured 4.52 square kilometers of territory from different directions near Avdiivka. The occupying Russian army suffered significant losses in equipment and manpower.