Why launch of Russia's Yars intercontinental ballistic missile did not take place. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Trump's talks with Putin

This week is being called a pivotal one in negotiations concerning Ukraine - at least according to some foreign politicians. However, in my view, that's somewhat of an exaggeration. I don't believe we'll hear anything fundamentally new after Trump's phone call with Putin, during which Trump is expected to ask the main aggressor whether he is genuinely committed to achieving peace in Ukraine.

We don’t yet know the outcome of these talks, but there’s a high likelihood that Putin will continue to juggle this so-called “readiness for negotiations,” avoid a lasting ceasefire, and persist with threats and missile-drone terror.

Given the advantage in manpower, Putin is likely hoping to break through Ukraine's defenses - assuming they will “crack” before Russia runs out of resources to continue its bloody offensive, and that he might even manage to seize four regions. These delusional ambitions are also being echoed by Western outlets like Bloomberg.

On Russia's attempts to launch Yars nuclear missile

As for the missile-drone terror and intimidation tactics, there are a few new details. Let’s start with the Yars missile. Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence warned that on the night of Monday, May 19, Russia was planning a demonstrative training-combat launch of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile. The Yars is a deep modernization of the Topol system and can be launched from both silo-based and mobile launchers.

Any missile launches by Russia in the current context are always an attempt to intimidate - both Ukrainians and, above all, Ukraine's partners. Even if the launch takes place at Russian test sites and not, like the Oreshnik, against Ukraine. Such actions stir anxiety in the minds of European and American politicians who fear what might happen if a Yars missile is suddenly used against them.

Of course, it’s frightening. But as of now, despite the intentions, the launch of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile has not taken place. The exact reason remains unknown. One theory is that something went wrong on the Russian side. Why draw such a conclusion? Because the Kremlin is hardly interested in showcasing the weakness of its nuclear deterrent forces right before Putin’s talks with Trump. However, it’s also possible that a technical issue occurred during the pre-launch preparations.

The RS-24 Yars is considered a well-tested missile, yet in 2023, at least twice in a row, its standard launches failed - the missile veered off course. I believe similar “surprises” may have occurred again this time for Russia’s nuclear forces.

So we’re waiting for more details. Although there’s another theory - that these training-combat launches were simply postponed until after the talks with Trump, to decide whether it makes sense to once again use nuclear threats to pressure the Americans or Europeans.

Drone attack on Ukraine on May 18

Meanwhile, Russia continues to actively use drones as part of its terror strategy against the civilian population, trying to break the resistance and create conditions for putting pressure on the Ukrainian government. This is how Russia believes terror works - by increasing the number of attacks.

In particular, on May 18, much more Shaheds were launched than in previous attacks. I won't mention the exact number, but I will draw attention to an important result: the command of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces stated that at least 100 Shaheds and imitator drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defense drones. This is a technological breakthrough: with the help of interceptor drones, which cost about $5,000, Russian drones, which are much more expensive, are being shot down. These are challenges that are solved by technology.

Frontline update

This is exactly how the Ukrainian most effective combat units operate, using various types of drones in their arsenals. One such example is the 429th Achilles Unmanned Systems Regiment.

Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment Achilles, emphasized that Russia’s intentions and actions toward Ukraine remain unchanged. It seeks to destroy the Ukrainian state - not just by seizing four regions, but by annihilating it entirely. It’s important to understand that a state is, first and foremost, its people. That’s why Russia is trying to eliminate Ukrainians and force them out of their own country. Constant terror, attacks on civilians, missile and Shahed drone strikes - all of this is aimed at making Ukrainians abandon their land. Because it is the people who resist and carry within them the genetic legacy of the Ukrainian nation. In other words, Putin is trying to destroy Ukrainians as a people.

Kupiansk direction

The commander of the 429th Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment Achilles reported that the Russian forces have currently increased their capacity to produce Shahed-type drones, decoys, and has also implemented upgrades. Russia is conducting mobilization within its own country, including financially motivated enlistment. Enterprises of the military-industrial complex and those that support it have switched to working in three shifts, and workers have received pay raises. Russian families can send their men to fight against Ukraine in exchange for financial bonuses, and in the event of their death - additional compensation. In other words, even when Ukrainian forces eliminate their enemy and they die on Ukrainian soil, the aggressor state pays their families.

The officer noted that in the near future, Russia plans to remobilize 150,000 servicemen. This means that over the next 3-4 months, around 100,000 Russian soldiers will gradually appear on the battlefield. Accordingly, Russia's offensive assault operations across most sections of the front will become more intense. It must be said that Russia's spring-summer offensive has already begun and will only escalate. They are currently actively preparing their cheap resource - manpower - to carry out tasks, using equally cheap resources such as Chinese two-wheeled motorcycles. For the cost of one tank, which ranges from $3 million, one could buy two train cars or two truckloads of these Chinese two-wheeled motorcycles. With this tactic, Russia gained a tactical advantage at the end of 2024. However, at present, Ukrainian defenders have learned to create kill zones and properly prepare the battlefield, so that fewer Russian vehicles reach the line of contact.

The serviceman reported that every day, more than 10 glide bombs (KABs) strike the Kupiansk area, and on some days, the number can reach as high as 30. The right-bank side of Kupiansk is being chaotically wiped out - down to the ground. In the direction of the settlement of Kruhliakivka, Russia currently has no success; they are being blocked by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. However, it is worth recalling that back in 2024, Russian troops managed to split the Ukrainian group in that area into two parts, leaving thousands of their own soldiers and hundreds of pieces of equipment on the battlefield.

Russian forces cannot expand their actions either to Zahryzove or to the direction of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi. The situation in the left-bank Kupiansk and Kupiansk-Vuzlove remains unchanged: constant assault actions, motorcycles, armor, combined attacks - all this does not bring success to Russian troops. In the direction of Dvorichna, Russian troops occupy a certain part of the right bank, and they also tried to create a reliable, prepared right bank bridgehead and set up pontoon crossings, but Ukrainian defenders manage to beat the invading troops ahead of them. In recent months, the intensity of hostilities has increased.

Fedorenko noted that, having analyzed the last three months of drone use, we can say that the average result is 68%. That is, out of 10 drones, 6.5-7 reach their targets. In general, 30% is also considered normal, when 3 out of 10 drones reach the target. This result is achieved through training and process optimization. As long as technologies, artificial intelligence, automatic targeting, and so on are developing, we must remember when talking about drone warfare that these are not machines, because behind every drone is a living person who has undergone general military training and specialized training. Every commander seeks to place pilots as far away from the front line as possible. However, this is only possible when the technology is brought to a certain level of progress, which is being actively worked on.