'Trump, Putin may shape dangerous peace': analyst warns of illusions, risks for Ukraine after Saudi talks

Executive Director of the Institute for the Transformation of Northern Eurasia Volodymyr Horbach expressed this opinion on Espreso TV

"It is an illusion that was evident even before the negotiations began for those who understand the nature of this war and the political regime in Russia. As a result, we are likely to see only a simulation of the negotiation process, which may last either a short or long time. Even if the parties reach agreements, they may be quickly violated, and Ukraine will be blamed for non-compliance. There are no points of contact or possibilities for compromise," he noted.

The “red lines” of the parties are so deep into the other side's field that it is impossible to reconcile them. It is Donald Trump's illusion to find a compromise, Horbach said.

“A ceasefire can only be achieved at the expense of Ukraine. All the “red lines” we proclaim will be rejected by mediator Donald Trump as unrealistic. In his opinion, only full satisfaction of Russian demands can lead to a settlement of this problem. We cannot and should not agree to such conditions. There is a certain limit to which we can play in these negotiations, demonstrating goodwill, integrity and compliance with the terms. However, regardless of our actions, the duo of Trump and Putin can accuse us of anything by creating a virtual reality for their audience,” the political analyst says.

Overall, participating in such negotiations is extremely risky for Ukraine. At the same time, we cannot refuse to engage in them, but protecting our interests under these conditions is practically impossible due to pressure from both sides.

If the Ukrainian government does not succumb to blackmail and provocations, the situation can be prolonged until better times, continuing cooperation with European partners to counter Russian aggression and American pressure. However, if Ukraine yields to provocations, a so-called honorable or dishonorable peace, effectively capitulation, could occur as early as this year, according to Horbach.

"There won't be an immediate solution here. We will likely see a cascade of decisions: initially a ceasefire in certain aspects, followed by sectoral agreements and concessions. These may continue until elections are held in Ukraine, a shift to a conditional pro-Russian political regime, and eventually a frozen conflict. This is the worst-case scenario one can imagine. The date of May 9 could be just one of the key stages. For example, Donald Trump could, hypothetically, attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow, stand next to Putin on the mausoleum, and then force Ukraine to accept Putin's terms. In such a scenario, Trump and Putin, as two 'great leaders,' according to Steve Witkoff, could begin to divide not just Ukraine, but also Europe and even the entire world," he added.

This scenario seems unlikely and undesirable, but, in the analyst's opinion, it is quite possible as one of the options for the development of events.

• Yuri Ushakov, aide to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, announced that U.S. and Russian delegations will meet for negotiations in Riyadh on Monday, March 24.
• President Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian and U.S. technical teams will meet in Saudi Arabia on Monday, March 24.
• At the same time, Special Representative Keith Kellogg said that the United States plans to hold separate meetings with Ukrainian and Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia in an effort to organize indirect talks. 
• On March 21, Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyi said that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the American delegation in Saudi Arabia, rejecting the possibility of talks with the Russians.