The main question: Who's next in Russia's sights?

The 15 conflict scenarios in Europe mentioned last week by Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson of Ukraine’s military intelligence, are not just analytical hypotheses, but real strategic intentions that Moscow is gradually trying to implement.

The key question: who’s next?

Ukraine's resistance disrupts the Kremlin's calculations, but due to inaction and delays in decision-making by the democratic world, Moscow remains undeterred in its aggressive plans. Western leaders fear "escalation," while Russia actively intensifies its actions daily—through attacks on civilian infrastructure, cyberattacks, and attempts to destabilize political situations in European countries.

Sanctions imposed too late and military aid provided belatedly cannot change the Kremlin’s strategy. Russia is playing a long game, and while the democratic world debates "red lines," Moscow is expanding the geography of its provocations—from Ukraine to the Baltics, from Moldova to the Balkans.

Political crises, hybrid operations, and border provocations in European countries are just part of Moscow’s arsenal. Is the West ready for a decisive response? Will the U.S. act only when Russian forces "accidentally" advance several kilometers into Poland? 

Europe’s greatest mistake in recent decades has been believing that Russia could be appeased. The key lesson is that the Kremlin must be stopped not after an invasion, but before it.

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About the author: Oleksandr Antonyk, political expert

The editorial board does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.