Espreso. Global

Russia outlines 15 potential conflict scenarios until 2045, says Ukrainian intelligence

Sofia Polonska
25 March, 2025 Tuesday
19:54

Six of the 15 scenarios involve Northern Europe, while four focus on Poland, highlighting serious security concerns

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This was reported by Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), during a roundtable discussion at Ukrinform on the topic "New contours of European security."

"Among these, six scenarios are related to Northern Europe. And... Northern Europe understands, as do the Baltic States. Poland understands too. There are four scenarios related specifically to Poland. Poland currently recognizes this as an immediate threat," he said.

The intelligence representative noted that Russia is aware of its position in the global leadership system. Based on this, Russia has developed four possible scenarios.

"The first is the absolute leadership of the United States, the second is the growing role of China, the third is a multipolar world, where Russia also sees itself, and the fourth is regionalization, as they call it, by regions. Essentially, regionally... we see this as well. And... Russia clearly stated in these documents that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026," Skibitskyi explained.

According to him, if the war lasts for another 5-10 years, Russia will never catch up with the United States and China and will forever remain a regional player at the Eastern European level.

Skibitskyi added that the war against Ukraine has actually been ongoing not since 2014, but since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

  • Earlier, Finnish intelligence suggested that Russia may attack the country once the war in Ukraine ends.
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