Espreso. Global

Russia may launch operation in Transnistria to block sea corridor from Ukraine — ISW

11 January, 2024 Thursday
10:45

The Kremlin may resume efforts to use unrecognized Transnistria to create instability in Moldova and undermine Ukraine's grain exports along the western Black Sea coast

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared the information.

It noted that at the end of 2023, a record 36 million metric tons of grain were shipped in the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta. About 40% of these supplies were Ukrainian grain.

Earlier, ISW experts estimated that Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea Fleet ships forced the Russian Navy to change its operations models and move some vessels away from its main base in occupied Sevastopol, western Crimea.

The destruction and damage to the Black Sea Fleet vessels also allowed Kyiv and its partners to maximize the use of the Black Sea Grain Corridor. International support for this project continues to grow, despite Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and threats to block its activities by force.

"The Kremlin may view a false flag operation in Transnistria as an alternative way to deter countries from participating in Ukraine’s grain corridor despite Russia’s weakened presence in the western Black Sea," the ISW report says.

Information on the "grain corridor"

On 17 July, Russia announced the termination of the grain deal. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that it was necessary to continue using the grain corridor even despite Russia's withdrawal from the agreement. 

On August 4, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that Ukraine would send ships with its own grain to wherever it deems necessary and would not ask anyone for permission.

On August 10, the Ukrainian Navy announced a temporary humanitarian corridor for merchant ships sailing to and from Ukrainian ports.

On August 12, Ukraine opened the registration of merchant ships and their owners who are ready to use temporary routes to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.

On August 16, the first vessel left the port of Odesa after Russia announced that it would terminate the grain deal on July 16, 2023.

On August 25, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The politicians discussed, among other things, the grain deal. Fidan stated that Ankara sees "no alternative" to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the original grain deal that Ukraine and Russia concluded with the mediation of the UN and Turkey.

On August 26, the second vessel left the port of Odesa, and on September 1, two more vessels blocked due to the war left the port of Pivdennyi in the Odesa region.

On September 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, following a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressed hope that an agreement on the Black Sea Grain Initiative would be reached in a short time.

On September 16, the blocked bulk carrier PUMA (Cayman Islands) left the Odesa seaport. The vessel was loaded with 16,000 tons of metal and 14,000 tons of rapeseed.

On the same day, Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said that the first civilian ships had confirmed their readiness to use the route to the Chornomorsk port to load almost 20,000 tons of wheat for Africa and Asia.

On September 16, Kubrakov said that after Russia withdrew from the grain deal, the occupiers struck Ukraine's ports 118 times. About a third of the infrastructure was damaged or destroyed.

On September 19, the vessel RESILIENT AFRICA left Odesa's Chornomorsk port via a temporary corridor: it was loaded with 3,000 tons of wheat.

On October 26, there were reports that the grain corridor had allegedly been temporarily suspended, but Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure denied the rumors, noting that Ukrainian ports continue to handle ships.

As of mid-November 2023, 100 vessels had sailed through the temporary grain corridor in the Black Sea.

On January 8, reports indicated that since the start of the temporary grain corridor in August 2023, 15 million tons of grain have been exported from Ukraine, 40% of which went to China and Egypt.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Wednesday
21 February
22:10
Review
Victorious news of 728th day of war: Ukraine downs Russia's 7th aircraft in a week, 60 Russian soldiers killed with HIMARS
21:55
Russian forces advance in 7 directions, Ukrainian army repels 38 attacks over last day
21:39
Retreat from Avdiivka: NYT reports 850 to 1,000 Ukrainians in captivity, Ukrainian army dismisses report as Russian propaganda
21:21
Russia moves remaining units from Avdiivka to other frontline areas
21:04
Belarus starts upgrading Uragan systems located near border with Ukraine, Poland
20:45
Exclusive
"Definitely not 47,000": military expert on Russian losses in Avdiivka
20:30
Syrskyi has adopted son in Australia: Russian propaganda creates new fake
20:12
OPINION
Ukraine and its neighbors have not learned how to respond to Russian PSYOPs
19:50
OPINION
Polish government cannot cope with Kremlin's blatant special operation
19:31
"I am ready to be there": Zelenskyy initiates meeting of Ukrainian, Polish leaders on border
19:14
Slovakia extends temporary protection for Ukrainians for another year
18:52
Iran sends Russia ballistic missiles capable of hitting targets up to 700 km away
18:30
Navalny’s murder leaves no doubts about monster who rules Russia
18:12
Russian forces plan to capture whole Luhansk region before Putin's election — intelligence
17:50
"Only Putin benefits from it": Polish Foreign Ministry comments on protesters' pro-Russian slogans
17:33
Russian forces form group to cover Russian border with Ukraine, deploy 48 Iskander missile launchers
17:10
Russia attacks Kyiv and region twice with experimental Zircon missile
16:50
OPINION
Poland and Ukraine march towards gallows of history — Vitaly Portnikov
16:27
Exclusive
Ukrainian Armed Forces seize opportunity to take down Russian aircraft on frontlines
16:10
Updated
EU approves largest to date 13th package of sanctions against Russia
15:50
Exclusive
February 14-21 live war map: Russia's seizure of Avdiivka. What are its next targets?
15:31
UN reveals how many Ukrainian refugees plan to return home
15:10
ZNPP remains on one power line due to Russian shelling
14:55
Exclusive
Shoigu's statements are lies: military expert Zgurets on enemy losses near Avdiivka and situation in Krynky
14:34
OPINION
Navalny is a product of an illusory view of Russia
13:50
British Intelligence assesses Russian capabilities near Robotyne
13:30
Exclusive
Map of fighting in Avdiivka, Donetsk region
Avdiivka direction: Russia may seek to move westward
13:10
Journalists identify names of about 45,000 Russians who died in war against Ukraine
12:49
Russian army suffers heavy losses in Kherson direction — Ukrainian official
12:30
OPINION
Russia's strike on NATO could happen before US elections
12:10
Ukrainian fighters destroy Russian ammunition depot: video
11:50
Ukraine's Defense Ministry aims to expand drone coalition to 20 countries
11:30
Review
How FPV drones smashed Russian base and what was surprise for destroyed Su. Column by Serhiy Zgurets
11:10
Ukraine investigates killing of 38 prisoners of war by Russian occupiers
10:50
Ukraine's triumph to be fitting tribute to Navalny — NATO Secretary General
10:30
Russia loses 1,130 soldiers, 70 armored vehicles, and 53 artillery systems in one day – General Staff
10:02
First group of Ukrainian pilots to complete F-16 training in US by summer
09:40
Ukrainian Air Force downs seventh Su-34 fighter jet in week-long spree
2024, Tuesday
20 February
22:20
Review
Victorious news of 727th day of war: 20 countries may join 'drone coalition', Ukrainian forces deliver powerful strikes in Donetsk region
22:05
Russian troops attempt to breach Ukrainian defenses 17 times near Marinka, attack near Avdiivka
More news