Ukraine's Spider's Web operation may have been far more devastating — military expert

Defense Express military expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

"If we are to realistically talk about the practical effect of the SBU's Spider's Web operation, regardless of the number of planes Russia has, Russian strategic aviation is a key element in strategically weakening our country. Everyone understands and knows how many Ukrainian lives have been taken by Russian strategic aviation pilots, and we can look at hard calculations about how much damage they have done to our power generation and weapons production capabilities. When it comes to weapons production, Russia had the tools to take out our facilities and hamper our potential restoration. The main practical effect of this operation is that this element of strategic weakening has been significantly diminished," Kyrychevskyi explained.

The expert shared that Russia may have lost up to 20% of its aviation fleet. This is because not only strategic bombers were stationed at the airfields.

"When SBU chief Malik talks about Russian losses, he gives generalized data, including the loss of 41 aircraft. The nuance is that these are not necessarily only strategic aviation planes. Russia has a wide variety of aircraft at these airfields. There are also transport planes that carry missiles. At the Olenya airfield, one of the primary airfields for the Russian Northern Fleet’s naval aviation, planes like the Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS, and the anti-submarine version of the Tu-142 can land there. So, anything could have been hit there. If we consider the lower threshold of estimates, it is now known that 13 Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 planes were either destroyed or damaged. This is still more than what Russia’s military-industrial complex can handle, and certainly more than the aircraft Russia could have mobilized for any massive strikes. So, based on all available information about Russia's aircraft fleet, their air component was reduced by 20% yesterday," he added.

Kyrychevskyi also explained that no country with strategic aviation builds shelters for such large aircraft because of their size.

"The size of the Tu-95MS strategic bomber is roughly 50 by 50 meters. These planes are 1.5 times bigger than regular passenger airliners. Russian, Chinese, and American bombers are very large, so it’s not feasible to build effective shelters for them. Moreover, strategic aviation is part of the first strike with cruise missiles or nuclear weapons. After that, there’s no difference in discussing shelters from nuclear explosions; they won’t help," emphasized the expert.

Kyrychevskyi described the Spider's Web operation as an extraordinary event. However, in his opinion, the SBU could have planned strikes on more airbases, but the Russian opposition might have forced the focus to shift to the most important targets.

"Yesterday was indeed an extraordinary event, and it's not worth calling the Russians incompetent. Many things happen in the world despite opposition. I think the Russians tried to counteract our intelligence services. Perhaps the Spider's Web operation was initially planned to be on a much larger scale. After all, in the frontline zone, there are 40 enemy airfields. So, the operation could have been planned on a larger scale, but due to Russian efforts to oppose it, we had to focus on the main and important targets," concluded Kyrychevskyi.

What is known about the Spider's Web operation

On June 1, 2025, the Ukrainian Security Service conducted a major operation called Spider's Web aimed at destroying Russian bomber aviation. It is known that 40 aircraft were damaged.

According to the Security Service, the estimated value of Russia's strategic aviation affected by the special operation amounts to 7 billion dollars.

Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that all terrorist attacks at military airfields in the Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions were repelled.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk for the operation’s results. He noted that the “office” of the SBU operation in Russia was located right next to the FSB administration in one of the regions. A total of 117 drones were used in the operation.

The head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, Andrii Kovalenko, later reported that at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed and even more were damaged in the large-scale SBU operation.

On Monday, June 2, the second round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia took place in Istanbul, Turkey.