How U.S. intel block may impact Ukraine’s air defense, strike capabilities. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

U.S. blocks intelligence sharing with Ukraine

Ukraine has not yet received detailed information about the U.S. intelligence-sharing restrictions. However, Kyiv is already working on alternatives, stated Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Previously, several influential media outlets reported, citing the CIA chief and the U.S. national security advisor, that Donald Trump's administration had limited or suspended lethal intelligence sharing but continues providing data for defense. This is part of a pressure campaign on Ukraine’s leadership to push for greater cooperation with Trump’s peace plan. However, this plan likely does not align with Ukraine’s national interests. Despite the explanations, it effectively amounts to blackmail through halting arms supplies and intelligence sharing.

The lethal intelligence from the U.S. refers to data used to prepare strikes on Russian targets deep within Russian territory using American long-range systems and Ukrainian drones. I believe that blocking intelligence from the U.S. will significantly limit the Ukrainian Armed Forces' ability to strike stationary Russian targets.

Russia may boost effectiveness of drone, missile strikes on Ukraine

Another part of the intelligence from the U.S. pertains to Ukraine’s air defense system. Data from specific American satellites was one of the first lines of defense. Real-time, reliable information about Russian bombers loading cruise missiles, ships arming with strike weapons, and the relocation of launchers with operational-tactical missiles was provided to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. These weapons are also potential carriers of nuclear weapons, so U.S. satellites closely monitor this data. Such information gave us time to ensure an appropriate response from our air defense forces. Will this data be blocked? Are the Americans classifying this information as necessary for defense? There is no final conclusion yet, but if these data are blocked, it will certainly harm Ukraine's ability to protect itself from constant Russian attacks on both civilian and military targets and will allow Russia to enhance the effectiveness of its drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian territory.

France to continue sharing intelligence with Ukraine on Russia

Amidst this information, France responded. French Minister of Defense Sébastien Lecornu stated that Ukraine can rely on the transfer of intelligence data from French colleagues. Of course, France's potential is somewhat smaller than the U.S., which has 245 satellites, while European countries have about 50, 15 of which are French. However, France has satellites capable of monitoring enemy surface activities, particularly using the CERES system. This system has satellites capable of precisely detecting enemy coordinates in the electromagnetic spectrum. Additionally, France has commercial satellites from Airbus, including the Pleiades NEO series, which can provide data to Ukraine. These two satellites can capture images of enemy territory with a resolution of up to 30 cm.

France also has AWACS systems, which could potentially provide assistance to Ukraine. We just have to wait for information on which data will truly be restricted. However, it can be asserted that a systemic reshaping of relations with the U.S. will now occur, because if this help cannot be relied upon in a critical moment, finding alternative solutions becomes the top priority for Ukraine and Europe.

Ukrainian defense company expands production of armored vehicles, mortars, and mines

The CEO of Ukrainian Armored Vehicles Vladyslav Belbas shared that the company is focused on manufacturing armored vehicles, mortars, and mortar shells - critical items for the Defense Forces. Every year, the company aims to scale up production. Belbas mentioned that in one year, they managed to triple the production of armored vehicles. There are plans to start producing artillery shells next year, with a goal of mastering the production of 155mm artillery ammunition by 2025. Additionally, production of mortars, armored vehicles, and mortar shells is being increased.

Vladyslav Belbas stated that due to bureaucracy within the Ministry of Defense, the process of manufacturing 155mm ammunition is delayed. The bureaucratic system in Ukraine's Ministry of Defense hinders the development of production. According to Belbas, scaling up and increasing production volumes are not just the manufacturers' desires but a necessity for the Defense Forces. This is why there is an urgent need for long-term contracts between the Ministry of Defense and manufacturers. Such agreements would allow private manufacturers to increase weapons production for the Armed Forces without state funding. However, as Belbas noted, this process traditionally stalls in Ukraine. He added that it seems like this is primarily necessary for manufacturers rather than the state.

Ukraine can boost production of Bohdana self-propelled howitzers

Vladyslav Belbas also shared details about the production of the Bohdana self-propelled howitzers. According to him, the production capacity for these systems is much higher, with limitations only in supplying chassis for the self-propelled units. Belbas noted that the company is currently developing the diversification of chassis for the Bohdana systems. He added that, in any case, considering the presentation and work on towed 155mm systems, the demand for self-propelled artillery is met by domestic producers.

Ukrainian Armored Vehicles to double production of Novator-2 in 2025

According to Belbas, at the beginning of the year, there were certain issues regarding contracts for the production of armored vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Specifically, by the beginning of 2025, the promised 3-year contracts for production had not been financed. As of today, the Defense Procurement Agency has finalized the contracts. Currently, Ukrainian Armored Vehicles has contracts 1.5 times larger than last year. Belbas mentioned that the company aimed to increase armored vehicle production by more than two times, particularly for the Novator-2 armored vehicles. As for the Varta-2 armored vehicles, the company has not yet completed its own testing of these machines, as it is a complex product. Belbas emphasized that these tests are expected to be completed in March, and the Varta-2 will be approved for delivery.

New projects of Ukrainian Armored Vehicles company

Vladyslav Belbas also shared that the company is working on new projects, including ground robotic complexes, which are a logical extension of the existing product line. Back in 2020-2021, the company proposed different variants of unmanned ground systems and also presented an unmanned surface vessel. At that time, however, no one understood how to apply them, but the war changed everything. The company has been working on unmanned systems since 2020, so this direction is not new for them. The solutions offered for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are quite unique, particularly in terms of cost, as similar systems offered by foreign companies are often much more expensive. Belbas concluded that the solutions provided by the company are of much higher quality and much more affordable.

He added that the company is also developing an FPV drone equipped with a 60mm mine, a unique design solution, especially regarding the use of 60mm mines, as their production can be scaled up significantly.