Russia has largely abandoned the idea of encircling Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared the information in its regular report.

Analysts suggest that Ukrainian forces may have broken through some Russian lines during localized counterattacks near Bakhmut.

Thus, the words of the commander of the Eastern Grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, that Russian troops had retreated up to 2 km to their rear in unspecified areas of the Bakhmut frontline were met with a reaction from the Russian Defense Ministry and the founder of Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Wagner's financier said that Ukrainian soldiers launched a counteroffensive and recaptured 3 km of territory in and around Bakhmut. And the Russian Defense Ministry "uncharacteristically quickly" recognized the Ukrainian counterattacks, saying that Russian troops allegedly repelled 8 ground attacks and 3 combat reconnaissance operations in the Donetsk direction. However, it denied reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had broken through Russian defenses.

"Prigozhin’s and the MoD’s responses are reflective of increased panic in the Russian information space over speculations about planned Ukrainian counteroffensives and indicate increased concern among Wagner and Russian MoD leadership as well as reflecting Kremlin guidance to avoid downplaying Ukrainian successes," the statement said.

Experts note that the deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut indicates that the Russian Defense Ministry has "largely" abandoned the goal of surrounding Ukrainian units there.

The Russian Defense Ministry probably "began a broader deprioritization of the Bakhmut effort by January 2023" when it stopped Wagner PMC from recruiting convicts. This prompted Prigozhin to intensify his efforts in the Soledar-Bakhmut area in January and to complain publicly, starting in February 2023, about the lack of support from the MoD.

In March and April, the Russian Defense Ministry briefly allocated more resources to the front line in Bakhmut, sending T-90 tanks and airborne troops, as well as mobilizing reservists to Wagner. And on April 24, Prigozhin said that the Defense Ministry had deployed only irregular and unqualified units to hold the flanks around Bakhmut, the Institute said.

"The inability of these units to fulfill even this limited mission indicates that Russian flanks in Bakhmut and other similarly-manned areas of the front are likely vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks," the report says.

The distribution of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's forces, combined with changes on the battlefield, also indicate that the danger of a Russian encirclement of significant Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is likely over. However, analysts suggest that Wagner's forces may continue to conduct frontal attacks in Bakhmut, which will allow Ukrainian troops to conduct an organized withdrawal from the threatened areas and not face a large-scale encirclement.

The head of Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, complains about the lack of ammunition the most in Russia, and experts believe that he is trying to justify his failure to capture Bakhmut. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense believes: "Any military information during the war is a weapon. It is used to fight, not to inform. So, the enemy is simply misleading us for its military purposes."

• On May 10, the Commander of the Land Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, confirmed the information previously reported by military commanders that the Ukrainian Defense Forces forced Russian terrorists to retreat to a distance of up to 2 kilometers in the Bakhmut direction.

• Yaroslav Lysenko, a fighter with the 3rd Battalion of the Svoboda Operational Task Force of the National Guard of Ukraine, said that important events would take place on the battlefield in late May. In addition, he suggested that a major offensive could begin from the Bakhmut direction.

• As of the morning of May 12, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces emphasized that Russia continues to attack in the Bakhmut direction, and fighting continues in the town of Bakhmut. Over the past day, Russian troops launched unsuccessful offensives in the direction of Stupochky. They launched air strikes on 4 settlements. Thirteen settlements in the Donetsk region suffered from Russian shelling.