Russia fires fewer shots per day - military expert Zgurets

Equipment and ammunition for the Ukrainian army

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff, which discussed Russia’s likely steps in the short term perspective, as well as the provision of the Ukrainian army with equipment and ammunition. Regarding ammunition, I would like to remind you that during the peak periods of hostilities, Russia would fire about 60,000 shots per day, now this figure has decreased to 20,000, and in March it is expected to drop to about 10,000. But this is more than the Ukrainian army can afford, so now we are considering the main direction of strengthening our capacity through regular, rhythmic supplies of ammunition from NATO countries. Also, the issue of producing ammunition domestically and obtaining the most scarce ammunition from different countries where we can provide procurement is being considered, this applies to the ammunition of 122 mm caliber.

There is information, photos and videos that the Ukrainian army is already using the ammunition that we received from Pakistan with the help of Great Britain. Further prospects depend on the rhythmic supply of Western weapons systems, although Western partners are beginning to say that we should rely on the superiority of our weapons in accuracy, power and range. This is absolutely true, but the question of the volume of ammunition and Western weapons systems supplies stands because without them it is difficult for the AFU to conduct active counter-offensive actions expected by the Ukrainian society.

Bakhmut direction

At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already liberated 40% of the territories occupied by Russia after the full-scale invasion, according to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi. However, the enemy still resists, and in some areas seeks to conduct offensive actions. This is confirmed by the situation in the Bakhmut sector, where heavy fighting has been going on for seven months. All this time the enemy has been trying to surround the city or storm it.

Petro Kuzyk, commander of the Svoboda battalion, captain of the National Guard of Ukraine, spoke about the situation in Bakhmut and noted that now there is another escalation, the Russian army has intensified its attacks. In some areas the pressure has decreased, this is due to the fact that we have killed many Russian servicemen. We also destroyed many enemy local ammunition depots. Our artillery, in particular, HIMARS, worked well along the enemy's rear line.

However, before the New Year, Russian troops were constantly attacking, there were 7 to 10 attacks a day. They lost an incredible number of people because they kept deploying more and more units on the assault. At this stage, we can say that the enemy has worn out, the dynamics of the assaults have decreased, but Bakhmut is being bombed and shelled with artillery. Almost the entire area is under attack, with less intensity, but still. Nothing changes, the dynamics are as high as it has been previously. Situationally, it can decrease or increase, and this happens for various reasons. The enemy is a little out of breath or waiting for new units, Wagner PMC runs out of personnel as well, they are waiting for new reinforcements of prisoners. I do not think that the enemy will stop storming, because for them Bakhmut is already a point of no return. The local leadership and Russian analysts have already accepted the fact that they cannot capture Bakhmut, and Moscow still cannot accept this. Therefore, the enemy will continue to try to capture the city and kill even more of its people.

This does not reduce the burden on Ukrainian defenders, our units are also exhausted. The enemy is constantly looking for a weakness in our defense. When the enemy realized that they would not capture Bakhmut head-on, they went to the right and left flanks, but got deterred and expanded the distance of flank bypasses.

Petro Kuzyk said that the Russian army had a small tactical success in Soledar. Now the situation there is stabilizing, but if they find a crack in the defense somewhere, they concentrate their forces there and try to gain some achievements in this area. Therefore, the confrontation in Soledar is now intensifying, street fighting continues. We have an insidious enemy, so we can not expect them to be decent human beings.

Kuzyk added that as for Klishchiivka and Ozarianivka, which are separated by a water canal, there are constant battles in the area of the dam and crossings of this canal. Russian troops were focused quite seriously for several months on this direction, however, they lost a huge amount of personnel there. They rolled back, but are trying to gain a foothold in the area. The fighting has not stopped for a second. We are constantly clearing different areas from the enemy. From the prisoners, we learn that mercenaries do not get paid, because they get killed before they can receive their salaries. But Russia has never been bothered by the number of losses.

Strike on Russian personnel concentration in Makiivka

Anton Mikhnenko, Defense Express expert on defense and technology, explained that any decision to launch fire strikes against the enemy is based on intelligence data. If we said that we just tracked cellular networks and mobile phones, detected the cluster, and immediately struck at Makiivka, where Russian troops were concentrated, then there would be premature conclusions about the target identification. Because before that, a lot of work was done to collect intelligence data, as well as data from the observations of Ukrainian Special Forces, who are in the deep rear. Respectively, this or that information on the location of the enemy's military contingent was put together and the sources of information were analyzed. Only after that appropriate decisions are made. And certain measures are required to prepare for such strikes.

Accordingly, we can draw the following conclusions. First, our intelligence works quite effectively. Second, we use intelligence from various sources, which gives us the opportunity to make accurate conclusions. Third, we use the arsenal of weapons that we receive from our partners as efficiently as possible.

Anton Mikhnenko emphasized that we strike accurately and precisely, reducing the enemy's ability to use personnel and military equipment for combat operations. Also, the Russian troops and their leadership do not have enough knowledge and skills to act appropriately, and this demonstrates the inability of the enemy's command staff.

In addition, Russia is trying to mobilize human resources and deploy them to the occupied territories of Ukraine, and the key problem they face is the placement of this personnel. Eastern Ukraine is full of various buildings and infrastructure facilities where one can hide, but it is very, very difficult to hide the redeployment of a large contingent to this region and to provide them with food. Therefore, the mobilization of human resources leads to significant losses and it will continue.