Poland may transfer one squadron of F-16 fighters to Ukraine. Column by military expert Serhiy Zgurets

Multifunctional F-16 fighters for Ukraine

During a press conference, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Warsaw is ready to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets as part of a coalition of NATO countries. In the context of this statement, the scenario of F-16s defending the skies in Ukraine has begun to take on more concrete features. Earlier, the Netherlands announced its readiness to transfer these types of aircraft to Ukraine, and Lockheed Martin, which is the manufacturer of these fighters, announced plans to increase the production of these combat vehicles. It is expected that the next meeting of defense ministers in the Ramstein format on February 14 will focus on aviation, taking into account Ukraine's needs and expectations. The Polish Air Force currently has 48 F-16 fighters in service with various modifications. So, it seems quite likely that Ukraine will receive one squadron of these fighters. I would like to remind you that the command of the Ukrainian Air Force emphasized that at least 5 brigades with three squadrons of aircraft each are needed to reliably protect the entirety of Ukraine. That is, in fact, we are talking about the need for 180 aircraft of this type or similar types of aircraft that can perform functions similar to the F-16. The American publication Politico also reported that the Pentagon insists on supplying Ukraine with F-16s. It is also reported that Ukraine has identified a list of 50 pilots who are ready to start training on these aircraft. These are pilots who have combat experience and speak English. Their training will take a maximum of 3 months. So, we expect an aviation Ramstein and further active participation of our allies in this matter.

Multirole fighter aircraft of the 4th generation General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon.

The West's delay in supplying Ukraine with weapons

Perhaps for the first time, the American Institute for the Study of War has issued a very important report. Analysts believe that if the West had started working on Ukraine's full transition to Western weapons as early as the summer of 2022 and did not delay the supply of the necessary weapons, it would have allowed Ukraine to continue its counter-offensive. They claim this would also deprive the Russian army of the opportunity to rebuild its forces, which is partially happening now. The West also needs to recognize the impact that these delays have had on Ukraine's ability to liberate more and faster the territories occupied by Russia. So, we hope that such conclusions will influence the supply of other types of weapons to Ukraine. After the announcement of the supply of tanks, the question of the aforementioned F-16 multifunctional fighters and long-range weapons is now being raised. After all, a sufficient number of weapons, trained and motivated personnel are critical factors that determine the course of hostilities.

The situation on the frontlines: Russian offensive on Bakhmut 

When we talk about the situation on the front, everyone's attention is naturally focused on the situation around Bakhmut. The dynamics of the fighting in this area of the frontline have been tense for quite a long time. We understand that the enemy is now continuing active actions related to the attack to the north and south of Bakhmut. The enemy tries to seize the road leading to Siversk. Klishchiyivka remains a more difficult area. From this settlement, Russia is trying to move toward Kostyantynivka. These two areas are under the Russia's fire control, but the retreat of our troops from Bakhmut is not on the agenda. Our military is perfectly defending itself and realizes that they have every opportunity to control the city.

Map of hostilities in Donetsk region.

The city of Bakhmut is of tactical importance. Even if the city is lost, the situation on the front line will not change. This will not create conditions for the enemy to advance to greater depths and will not create any qualitative changes on the front line. Now Bakhmut is fulfilling a significant mission related to the destruction of Russian personnel. We remember well the story of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk when the Ukrainian military destroyed a large number of Russian manpower for a significant period of time. It was this that made it possible to create opportunities for an active offensive.

Russians are actively using artillery in the battle for Bakhmut

The information about the shell famine in the Russian army is not true. In particular, this applies to Bakhmut. My friends from the Ukrainian Armed Forces say that the Russian forces are constantly firing artillery at the positions of our troops in Bakhmut. Our troops are also responding with active artillery fire. Our military also notes that they no longer have enough ammunition for Soviet artillery models. However, they say the situation with Western artillery is the opposite. Also, as for the Russian troops in this area, after a large number of prisoners from Wagner's PMC were killed near Soledar, the enemy is beginning to bring in regular troops.

The number of Russian troops in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine

There are more than 300 thousand Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. I would like to remind you that on February 24, Russia deployed more than 180,000 troops to invade Ukraine. We now realize that the number of Russian army personnel in the temporarily occupied territories has increased significantly, while the front line itself has shrunk. This suggests that the enemy has tightened the deployment of its troops, which puts an additional burden on our units. In addition, another 150,000 mobilized Russian soldiers are completing training in the format of new units. In turn, Ukraine's defense sector currently employs more than 1 million people, 700,000 of whom are members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, it should be understood that only a fraction of them are involved in combat operations. The rest of the military constitutes the main reserve for future combat operations.