Russia’s mass production of Oreshnik missiles may undermine its strategic nuclear capabilities — expert

Defense Express development director Valerii Riabykh said this on Espreso TV.

“From what we have seen, Oreshnik is more a weapon of psychological pressure. In their standard configuration, such missile systems do not have real military purpose. Given that it is part of an intercontinental ballistic missile, specifically two stages, it is a medium-range missile. And those so-called separating warheads, which do not carry any explosives and are supposed to strike using kinetic energy—even their use against Dnipro showed the clear ineffectiveness of such a means,” he said.

The expert added that, moreover, such a launch has not been repeated, and most specialists say that the Oreshnik used developments from the past.

“These are inert missiles, which were specifically designed for inert tests. Given the capabilities of Russian industry, they are currently insufficient to produce the intercontinental ballistic missiles that need to be regularly replaced to maintain their strategic deterrence capability with their existing land-based nuclear arsenal,” Riabykh emphasized.

He noted that the production capacity is estimated at 20 such missiles per year.

“If the production of Oreshnik, which has no real military purpose, is launched, it will reduce the enemy’s ability to restore its nuclear strategic potential. This means that it will not remain at the same level, but will decrease. For now, we can assess Putin’s statements as primarily an information weapon,” the expert concluded.

Oreshnik and its use in Ukraine

On November 21, 2024, Putin claimed that, allegedly in response to the use of Western long-range weapons against the Russian Federation, the Russian troops used the latest domestic medium-range ballistic missiles Oreshnik in a non-nuclear configuration for the first time. The Kremlin leader claimed the target was a Ukrainian defense industry facility—the Pivdenmash plant.

Later, Putin stated that decision-making centers in Kyiv could become targets for the new Oreshnik missile, which Russia used to attack Dnipro.

In March 2025, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko claimed that Belarus was already manufacturing launchers for the Oreshnik ballistic missiles.

On June 23, 2025, Putin announced the alleged launch of serial production of Oreshnik.