ISW predicts how events would unfold if Russians capture Bakhmut
If Russian troops capture Bakhmut, exhausted by the battles in Donetsk region, they will have to choose between an offensive on Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, or Slovyansk
The Institute for the Study of War writes about this.
American analysts draw attention to the fact that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on March 7 that the hypothetical Russian capture of Bakhmut would provide Russian forces an “open road” to Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and other critical settlements in Donetsk Oblast.
However, ISW continues to assess that Russian forces lack the capability to use the tactical capture of Bakhmut to generate operational effect. They would probably rapidly culminate following the capture of Bakhmut.
The Russian troops will have to choose between two different directions of advance after the capture. They may try to advance west along the T0504 highway towards Kostiantynivka (about 20 km from Bakhmut) or they may advance northwest along the E40 highway towards Slovyansk-Kramatorsk in northwestern Donetsk Oblast (about 40 km northwest of Bakhmut).
The degraded Russian forces would likely have to prioritize only one of these directions to have any chance of success, although Russian commanders repeatedly stretched their forces too thin in multiple directions throughout the invasion.
"Ukrainian forces have also heavily fortified both of these routes, which are supplied by numerous ground lines of communication running deep into the Ukrainian rear, and any Russian attempt to advance down these roads would likely be highly costly," the ISW concluded.
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On March 6, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the AFU Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and the Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi spoke in favor of continuing the defense.
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On March 7, the Institute for the Study of War wrote that the further holding of Bakhmut is important due to the possibility of destroying combat-ready Russian units, but the city in Donetsk region is not of critical importance.
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On March 7, British intelligence reported that the Ukrainian military managed to stabilize the defense perimeter in Bakhmut, but the supply is complicated due to the fact that the key bridge is destroyed by the Russians
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