Crimea may have seen successful debut of Neptune system - military expert Zgurets

Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (DIU) landing in Crimea

The confirmation of this positive development came from DIU spokesperson Andriy Yusov. At approximately 4:00 a.m., Ukrainian units carried out a special operation near Cape Tarkhankut. Near the village of Mayak, there is a Russian radar reconnaissance point. A Ukrainian unit landed there. Yusov said that the details would be announced later, but some media outlets reported that Ukrainian soldiers damaged 4 Russian boats and eliminated at least 30 soldiers. This is the first amphibious operation on the Crimean coast, underscoring the fact that Russian forces cannot assume safety anywhere, even within Crimea itself. An S-400 was destroyed near Tarkhankut, possibly by the Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune system that destroyed the Russian cruiser Moskva. Ukrainian weaponry is actively engaging tasks within Crimea. Neptune is designed primarily to combat naval targets, but the weapon has been modified for land strikes. This may be the first successful experimental strike on Russian targets.

The situation in the Bakhmut direction

There is an inseparable triad: weapons, morale and skills. Without good skills and strong morale, a weapon remains a piece of iron that can be neither a sword nor a shield. The combination of will, weapons and skills on the battlefield is best demonstrated by the 3rd Brigade near Bakhmut. Deputy Brigadier Maksym Zhorin said that in the evening the unit repelled the last attempt to storm their positions. Russia has relocated a lot of forces to Bakhmut. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are not going to stop, the fighting is becoming very fierce. They continue every day for every position. If we are not storming, then Russia is storming. Russian troops wanted to stop the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but have not succeeded. The Ukrainian military continue to advance despite the attacks Russian troops launch several times a day. Wagner mercenaries were withdrawn from here a long time ago.

Across from the Ukrainian forces stand the regular units of the Russian army. Predominantly composed of paratroopers, there were also attempts to deploy the Akhmat special forces, albeit without success. In addition to these, there are volunteers. Motivated, experienced and volunteer units have been mostly deployed here, because they were the ones Russia used to try to halt the advance of the Ukrainian army. So, the assassination of Prigozhin has no impact on the events near Bakhmut. The heaviest fighting is not for the city itself, but on its flanks - for the small settlements of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka. The heaviest fighting is going on near them. Russia understands that the success of Ukraine and the encirclement of Russian forces would deal a significant blow, especially on the political front. 

For quite some time, Russia has been fostering the narrative that a considerable number of Russian lives were lost here for a cause. However, it has now come to light that these sacrifices were futile. As the city slips from their grasp and their flanks crumble, their units are forced into retreat. The military problem for them is that Ukrainian forces will advance and build on their success inside the Donetsk region, but there will also be a very significant political problem. Ukrainian forces are currently improving the tactical position of their units to make it easier and more effective to advance. 

Ukraine’s gains are mostly centered on preparing the terrain and everything it needs to advance, including the railroad. It is not always visible on the map, but these are very important areas where 50-100 meters mean a lot for the overall picture and further progress. Russia tried to use equipment to advance. When Ukrainian forces destroyed a huge amount of it in our direction, prompting the Russian forces to resort to advancing on foot once more. Russia is rapidly losing equipment. Even though they have more of it, they are trying to spare it and use it less on the front line. Tanks primarily operate from concealed positions, and armored personnel carriers bring Russian soldiers at night and escape, because the Ukrainian Defense Forces immediately destroy them. Attempts by Russian troops to mount offensives using vehicles from the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been thwarted, and the freedom of movement for Russian troops and their equipment is severely constrained. The dynamics of seasons, terrain, and weather undoubtedly influence the nature of battles. 

However, these factors impact both Ukrainian and Russian forces equally. Maksym Zhorin believes that the seasonal changes and weather conditions are not anticipated to exert a significant hindrance to Ukraine’s advance. We will still adapt, re-plan and advance.

Striking the enemy on its territory

This tactic is designed to yield results in both the immediate and distant future. Presently, there are numerous instances of long-range systems effectively dismantling Russian logistics. The proactive measures executed by Ukrainian military and Special Forces are introducing new points of disruption for Russia, preventing swift reactionary measures. This means that we are changing tactics and they bring effective results.