Challenges of Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian warplanes should not feel free in its airspace: weekly military summary

Ukrainian military analyst, CEO of Defense Express military expert group, Serhiy Zgurets has shared his latest assessment of the frontline situation in Ukraine.

The encirclement of Avdiivka is a heavy assumption

There have been many reports that the Russian troops are trying to shift the center of their efforts from Bakhmut to Avdiivka, and this is evident on the front line. Avdiivka is holding out heroically, and for nine years the Russian army has not been able to advance to the city. Now the Russians are trying to implement the same scenario as in Bakhmut – encirclement. Their attempts to reach the settlements surrounding Avdiivka have had only limited success. Although they captured Krasnohorivka in the north, attacks from there on Stepove and Kamianka were repelled. Now the Russian forces have started to amass forces again.

There were also attempts to attack from the south in the direction of Sieverne and Orlivka, but they were repelled. The General Staff notes that the situation is complicated, but there are no grounds to talk about any encirclement. To say that Avdiivka will be encircled is a heavy assumption that does not correspond to reality. Russia is actively using aviation, which means that we need to actively strengthen air defense. They continue to use the strategy of aerial terror, which is what the occupying Russian forces did in Mariupol when they destroyed the city with powerful bombs. Using the proximity to Donetsk, they can fly into Ukraine's territory and drop bombs. This does not happen in other parts of the frontline because we have more powerful air defense systems. Here, we cannot suppress the work of Russian aviation.

There is no shift of forces from Bakhmut to Avdiivka, but the Russian army has now chosen a strategy to use forces from the second reserve in all five directions of attacks. Something on the first line is destroyed, and then forces are quickly redeployed to compensate for the losses. The importance of destroying the enemy on the second reserve lines is no less important than on the first. This poses a challenge to Ukraine’s artillery.

Challenges of the counteroffensive – everything must be on time, not faster

We understand that the counteroffensive will affect the course of the fighting and the further course of the political battles over the post-war order. A counteroffensive alone will not end the war, and we understand that Ukraine needs to prepare for it thoroughly. But sometimes the expectation of a counteroffensive acts as a motivating factor, as if everything needs to be done faster. But we need to do it not faster, but on time. The issue of quality preparation is the main challenge of this counteroffensive. Ukraine is expected to perform another miracle. The Ukrainian army needs to be prepared and approach it very carefully.

There are obvious points that we have to advance towards Berdiansk, Mariupol and Melitopol. And this obviousness is such a challenge. The Ukrainian side has to do everything so that even the obvious things come as a complete surprise to the Russian enemy. So that they cannot prepare for such a counteroffensive. It may be not one, but several in different areas. This is a serious intellectual challenge for Ukraine's General Staff, which it will effectively cope with.

Bakhmut – no problems with logistics, but the Russians are getting exhausted

Russia is exhausting its offensive potential. If its army makes an attempt now, it will be an attack on one of the five directions and depletion. Then we need to develop a new strategy. Now no one is asking when Ukraine's army will leave Bakhmut, because the Russian one is running out of steam and there is a possibility of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Prigozhin complains that his troops will be surrounded near the city, and he appeals to Shoigu because the Ukrainians have many reserves. In fact, the dynamics shift to a different perception of the situation.

There are no issues with the logistics of Bakhmut. Russia's seizure of some neighborhoods in the city's south is a reality of the fighting. It is not a matter of neighborhoods, but of individual streets and houses. It is extremely difficult for the Russians to fight in the built-up area. In the north, south and east, Ukrainian units are holding the line quite effectively. Syrskyi's statement that we may soon repeat the scenario of the Russian enemy leaving Ukrainian territory testifies that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are accumulating enough forces. The Ukrainian military will be able to carry out counteroffensive actions and restrain the Russian offensive on Bakhmut.

Unable to take Bakhmut from the front, the Russian troops moved to other areas. They tried to move to Minkivka (one of the roads near the way to Sloviansk), but were stopped and returned to their previous positions. Now the Russian forces are trying to push through the directions to Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Khromove, but they are not successful. They want to reach the dominant heights, but they are not succeeding. I hope that the dynamics around Bakhmut will allow the Ukrainian army to continue to destroy the enemy as much as possible and create conditions for counteroffensives, as hinted at by Syrskyi.

Zaluzhnyi's advisor said today that the Russian army loses 25,000 personnel killed and 70,000 wounded every month. This means that even these compensatory attempts to conscript 20,000 personnel every month are simply not enough. The potential of the "great offensive" in Donbas, which began 1.5 months ago, is already exhausting itself. Ukraine's intelligence stated that Russia cannot attack in any other direction but in one. Perhaps they will try actions around Bakhmut or elsewhere.

Russian aviation should not feel free in its airspace

The story of Sumy is quite disturbing. In the Sumy region, the Russian army hit a school with a guided bomb. This is a new type of weapon. 10 Su-35 fighters dropped 11 bombs. These missiles were designed to be dropped by fighter jets without entering Ukrainian airspace. They can travel up to 40 kilometers and hit predetermined targets. If these bombs are guided only by satellite navigation, then special jamming devices can be used to make these bombs "blind". If it's an inertial system, then we need to look for other ways – to destroy the aircraft, to strengthen air defense. Sumy is located close to the border with Russia, as well as Chernihiv. Such cases of aviation use are a dangerous trend. Russia will continue to destroy peaceful targets. If they hit a school, it means that the coordinates were laid down in this bomb.

The SAMP/T and Patriot systems can destroy these aircraft before the bombs are even dropped. We need some good examples to show the Russians that they cannot feel confident even in their own airspace. This will be a good sign that the rules of the game are to be changed. 

Strikes on Crimea, Nova Kakhovka and the anniversary of the strike on the Russian Navy

The strikes on Crimea have practical, military, and important ideological and political significance. Once again, Sevastopol bays were attacked by sea and air drones. The attack by naval drones was not very successful because it failed to destroy the ships. With a different planning and approach, we can reach Sevastopol Bay with surface drones. It is a matter of time and planning the operation.

The drone strikes on Dzhankoi are about using modified Chinese civilian drones. We have used them to strike other Russian targets, and they can carry a sufficient supply of explosives and perform strike functions.  Dzhankoi is a logistics hub where several railroad tracks intersect. It is extremely important because the destruction of the railroad tracks there complicates the entire logistics of the Russian group, which was done, including the destruction of the Kalibr missiles.

Video of a strike on a cluster of Russian landing ships emerged online. The strike was by Tochka-U, which is a unique case. This system has a significant error of up to one hundred meters. The fact that we were able to hit the Saratov and damage the other ships shows that luck and God are on Ukraine's side. Even with such a weapon, it was the first time we hit a Russian ship and achieved such a positive result.

In Nova Kakhovka, an operation to minimize the Russian presence using Ukraine's artillery has been going on for a long time. We are trying to push the Russian troops back 20 kilometers from the Dnipro coast. This has an impact on the Russian forces, because there are fewer troops there. I think they are not ready to leave Nova Kakhovka completely. It was most likely rotation measures that were the basis for this information. The Russian army will stay there, but if Ukrainian artillery continues to work effectively, this stay will end in death. The Russians are drawing certain conclusions and are trying to somehow move along the left bank of the Dnipro to ensure a longer life expectancy.