Czech election results: pro-European forces retain blocking power as Babiš falls short of majority

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

The Czech parliamentary elections delivered a surprising outcome that defies pre-election polling and leaves the country's political future uncertain. While Andrej Babiš's ANO movement emerged as the largest single party, the combined pro-government coalition parties—Spolu, STAN, and the Pirates—performed better than sociologists predicted, collectively securing 2.44 million votes and 92 parliamentary seats.

The pro-European bloc's performance represents a significant achievement given the electoral mathematics. Though these parties won 100,000 more votes than in the previous election when they formed the government with 108 seats, regional preferences in the Czech electoral system translated their support into fewer mandates this time. Nevertheless, their 92 seats provide crucial blocking power for decisions requiring 120 votes.

The election produced several notable outcomes. The Communist Party failed to clear the parliamentary threshold, eliminating the most pro-Moscow force from the legislature and reducing anti-European and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. The far-right SPD party, led by Tomio Okamura, dramatically underperformed, securing just 7.78% after polls suggested 12-14%. The SPD's disappointing result came despite running as a de facto bloc of four parties that used electoral list manipulation to avoid the 11% coalition threshold.

Spolu exceeded expectations with 23.36% compared to projected 19-21%, while STAN (11.23%) and the Pirates (8.97%) both outperformed the SPD despite running separately this time. Significantly, the Pirates secured 18 seats and beat SPD's percentage.

Andrej Babiš now faces limited coalition options, none of them straightforward. His first option involves forming a minority government with tacit support from SPD and the Motorists party, which would give him 108 seats. However, this arrangement requires approval from pro-European President Petr Pavel, acquiescence from opposition parties controlling both parliamentary chambers, and cooperation from SPD—whose 15 seats actually represent multiple smaller parties that ran on SPD lists to avoid electoral thresholds.

Such a minority government would be inherently unstable and force Babis into constant balancing acts and behind-the-scenes negotiations with pro-European forces. His immediate post-election rhetoric suggesting possible continuation of the "Czech initiative" for ammunition supplies to Ukraine—which he opposed throughout the campaign—signals an invitation to negotiate with President Pavel, the initiative's architect.

The second option—a formal coalition with SPD and the Motorists—presents three major obstacles: Babiš would have to surrender ministerial portfolios, negotiate with multiple parties hidden within SPD's structure, and manage existing political conflicts between SPD and the Motorists. In such a government, the Motorists would hold disproportionate leverage, undermining Babis's control.

The combination of these factors will likely push Andrej Babiš toward seeking balance through informal agreements with pro-European forces—not about forming a coalition government, but about receiving their tacit approval to govern as election winner. This would require Andrej Babiš to make concessions on issues non-essential to him but critical to pro-European parties, particularly maintaining alignment with EU policy and continued support for Ukraine.

With pro-European parties controlling the Senate, the presidency in the hands of Petr Pavel, and a blocking minority in the lower house, the former governing coalition retains substantial influence to constrain Andrej Babiš despite losing power. The election results ensure that any government Babiš forms will face significant checks on pursuing radically pro-Russian or anti-European policies.

• The new head of the Czech government will once again be the anti-European politician and pro-Russian billionaire, owner of the Agrofert corporation, Andrej Babiš, who already held this position from 2017-2021.
• The victory of Andrej Babiš's party in the Czech elections marks a political shift that Ukraine may also feel. The former prime minister, a billionaire and populist, will once again lead the government – and his foreign policy views are causing increasing debate in Europe.