Could Slovakia aid Russia in hybrid warfare against Ukraine amid energy crisis?

Every week, Russians launch two to three waves of strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Recently, 502 Shahed drones hit the country at once, knocking out power in several cities. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned clearly that such attacks would become regular in winter.

“I instructed Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov to coordinate government officials, regional administrations, and energy companies to procure additional short- and medium-range air defense systems, as well as increase funding for drone manufacturers. The priority is shooting down Shaheds,” the president wrote on his official social media.

Another notable event deserves attention.

During his extended visit to China, Russian leader Putin used a meeting with his “vassal” in the European Union, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, to make a strange statement. He urged the pro-Russian politician to cut off reverse gas and electricity flows to Ukraine.

According to Putin, Moscow “tolerated for a long time when Ukrainians struck Russian energy infrastructure, and then began responding seriously.” The Kremlin dictator believes that if European countries stop supplying gas and oil to Ukraine, the Ukrainians “will immediately understand that there are limits to behavior when it comes to violating others’ interests.”

How should this be perceived? Undoubtedly, it is an attempt to shake European unity around supporting Ukraine. It is hardly surprising that these talks with Fico took place just as key European Union countries were outlining the contours of modest postwar security guarantees.

For now, the guarantees remain limited, although Europe is already firmly convinced that Ukraine is an essential part of its own security. This means participation in funding the rebuilding of the Ukrainian army, large-scale arms supplies, and eventually even a joint military contingent.

Even these relatively simple proposals deeply unsettle “Grandpa Putin,” who not only wants to stall for time but also dreams, alongside China’s Xi, of living to 150. From the very start, the Russian dictator has been trying to intimidate, warning that any Western military contingent would become a target for Russian strikes.

All this, combined with attempts to once again stir emotions and frighten the Ukrainian rear and Europeans who have yet to experience a full-scale hybrid war.

Since Fico has already been mentioned, the Slovak prime minister serves as an entry point into the European Union not only for Russia but also for China.

Xi Jinping openly believes that Bratislava will continue to help Beijing in establishing relations with the European Union. Specifically, Slovakia is expected to defend China in the EU, which imposed high tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles over unfair competition. Slovakia, worth noting, was one of only five EU countries that opposed the tariffs.

For his part, Fico seeks to attract Chinese industrial investments from companies that sell their products in Europe. For him, it is purely business, an effort to hold on to power, nothing personal.

Thus, Robert Fico’s visit to meet Zelenskyy in Uzhhorod will not only be a discussion about whether to strike the Druzhba oil pipeline.

It is about how far our neighbor, who is an EU member, is willing to go and whether he will help Russia in this hybrid war to strangle Ukraine together.

Will Ukraine be left without gas and electricity? It won’t be easy, especially for our Left Bank, which is the primary target of Russia’s direct strikes. Yet each of us has built up resilience, with a power station on the shelf or a generator in the garage.

Fear can no longer break Ukrainians — it didn’t even work in autumn 2022, when Russia made titanic efforts to plunge us into cold and darkness.

Still, figures like Robert Fico show that hybrid war brings new challenges. Strong diplomacy and Brussels’ support are essential to restrain Russia’s and China’s agent. The Slovak prime minister must be held accountable for his “frog in the swamp” remark, given how generously he feeds off the EU budget.

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author. Maryna Danyliuk-Yarmolaieva, journalist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.