Why fears of Russian nuke use are reigniting again

Bob Woodward’s book claims the highest risk of such a strike came during Russia’s retreat from Kherson. It was about a possible demonstration shot using a tactical nuclear weapon. Now that the Operation Spider’s Web has taken place, talk of a strike feels more urgent again. So I’ll remind you of a few things on the subject.

According to intelligence, a “Russian nuclear strike” could take two forms: a demonstration missile launch into the Black Sea, or a low-yield tactical nuclear strike on Ukrainian forces in the field.

It’s important to remember that nuclear weapons are mainly tools of deterrence and fear, so the first option is more likely. Under Biden, the U.S. had a response plan if Russia tried this: in the first case, they’d send long-range weapons to Ukraine; in the second, they would carry out a non-nuclear strike on the Russian navy. Allegedly, the Russians were warned about this.

With Trump now in charge, that kind of response seems far less likely. But we have to understand: using nuclear weapons in any form changes everything. It wouldn’t force Ukraine to surrender, but it would completely isolate Russia. We’re not just talking about sanctions. It would mean a total cutoff of all ties with the Russian state. Basically, it would bring back the Iron Curtain, kickstart an arms race, and split the world, just like during the Soviet era. This would be the end of Russia, which has already lost 40% of its budget revenues recently because of falling oil prices.

Even China wouldn’t back Russia in this scenario. Xi already warned them back in 2023. China still hasn’t built a large nuclear arsenal, and another Iron Curtain would force Beijing to pick a side. Russia’s weak market is not something the Chinese economy cares about.

Putin knows exactly what such a move would mean, and that it would be the beginning of the end for him. Their general staff has run this scenario many times, and it’s never shown a winning outcome. Remember, he didn’t take that step even when Ukraine hit the Kursk region — something that, under their own doctrine, could have justified it.

So, in my opinion, there’s no reason to worry about this right now. But that doesn’t mean the sick scum has run out of other ways to hurt us. 

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About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.