Espreso. Global

Who is main threat to Putin regime in Russia? Independent political analyst Oreshkin tells

2 September, 2023 Saturday

Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst and professor at the Free University of Riga, believes that the main threat to Putin's government is now the ‘turbo patriots’, people like Prigozhin-Girkin, who are claiming that Putin is not fighting well


He expressed this opinion on Espreso TV. 

"In Putin's model of power, public opinion is not a political subject, but a political object. It is manipulated, a certain picture of the world is poured into its brain through television. Until the government changes, public opinion will not be restructured. In fact, the question of the stability of the Putin regime is only about the mood of the elites. Firstly, elites are better informed, and secondly, they have the skills to analyze information on their own. That's where the rethinking can happen. In fact, it is already happening, and we see some indirect signs: someone is leaving, someone is declaring himself a Kazakh businessman and renouncing his Russian roots. Otherwise, there are elite citizens, and these are bad signs for Putin," the independent political analyst noted.

According to Oreshkin, Patrushev, or Medvedev, or anyone else, are not all of Putin's elites, but only the ‘turbo patriotic’ part. Of course, they have a very high influence, but they also know how to take money. However, they do not and cannot think about where this money comes from. Already a third of the Russian budget, about RUB 10 trillion out of RUB 30 trillion, is spent on the war. This cannot go on for much longer, as living conditions will obviously deteriorate for both the population and the elites.

"So, there is a hidden grumbling and disappointment among the elites, on both sides. It is clear that those people who would like to see Russia become a European-oriented country have been driven under the bench, are silent, intimidated, and follow the orders given to them by Putin. But right now, the main threat to Putin is the ‘turbo patriots’, or people like Prigozhin-Girkin, who are making claims to Putin that he is not fighting well. Long ago, they say, Ukraine should have been defeated, long ago the tricolor should have been raised over Kyiv, and Putin is a weakling - that's what's most interesting. So now Putin's repressions will hit the ‘turbo patriotic’ public. And in this sense, it is the elites who are experiencing a pattern break," the professor noted.

Dmitry Oreshkin is convinced that the more and more efficiently the Ukrainian Armed Forces act, the faster the Russian elites will break down, become disillusioned, and formulate claims against Putin. As for public opinion, it sits with its mouth open at the TV and does not understand what is happening at all.

  • On August 29, Reuters reported that the White House is close to declaring the Kremlin responsible for the death of the head of the Wagner PMC group, Yevgeny Prigozhin. On August 23, an Embraer business jet belonging to Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed in the Tver region of Russia, killing 10 people. The financier of the Wagner PMC was among the passengers.

  • On August 31, the former leader of the so-called DPR army, Igor Girkin (Strelkov), wrote an appeal announcing his intention to run for the presidency in 2024. It should be noted that on July 21, the Russian news agency RBC reported on Girkin's detention. It was noted that law enforcement officers took Strelkov from his home in the afternoon. In the evening of the same day, a Russian court sent Girkin to a pre-trial detention center. It was noted that the Meshchansky Court arrested Strelkov on charges of calling for extremist activities. BBC reports that he was sent to a pre-trial detention center until September 18.
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