What could change the aftermath of the White House's diplomatic debacle?

1. Europe’s new strategy. Theoretically, every European leader should now be able to picture themselves in Zelenskyy’s shoes. The issue here isn’t just about the personalities involved or the specifics of U.S.-Ukrainian diplomacy — it’s about Trump strategically shifting priorities, meaning Europe must now take responsibility for its own security.

That’s why Europe must radically — and most importantly, immediately — increase its defense spending. The new security architecture in the EU will have no choice but to support Ukraine’s security to compensate for the loss of U.S. support because this is in Europe’s own interest. There aren’t many capable armies left on the continent that are ready to adequately resist Russia.

• The good news is that the overwhelming majority of European countries are firmly on Ukraine’s side. This has become very clear from how European leaders have reacted to what happened at the White House.
• The bad news, however, is that the EU tends to make decisions at a painfully slow pace — and often only in words. (For example, I’ve already lost count of how many times Macron has “bravely” announced the creation of a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine, only to quietly add, “...but only if the U.S. guarantees it”).

Still, I hope the EU finally realizes that they have a very simple choice right now: either the EU becomes the new NATO, or the EU simply disappears, divided into spheres of influence between Russia, China, and the U.S.

2. Trump’s ratings in the U.S. Trump’s approval ratings are not great at the moment, though they’re not catastrophic either. But expectations were very high. Moreover, I’ve already cited studies showing that American voters, regardless of party affiliation, largely sympathize with Ukraine. That said, I wouldn’t dare predict how Americans will react specifically to what happened at the White House — the response could be wildly unpredictable.

Of course, the Russia-Ukraine war isn’t the top issue on most Americans’ minds. But the problem for Trump is that there haven’t been any major wins in the other high-profile issues he’s promised either. The economy isn’t booming, there’s no mass exodus of migrants, Greenland isn’t joining the U.S., Canada isn’t asking to become the 51st state, and the Panama Canal isn’t suddenly flowing through Manhattan.

How Trump plans to deliver on all those promises is still unclear. If this continues, his declining approval trend could become irreversible. That’s why Trump will increasingly need some sort of political victories. He may try to revive the "Minerals Deal" and reopen discussions on acceptable terms for pausing the Russia-Ukraine war.

3. China and Russia. Trump’s top foreign policy priority remains containing China. He wants to weaken China by breaking up the strategic alliance between Moscow and Beijing. He’s also interested in gaining access to Arctic resources — something that could be achieved partly through Russia.

However, the problem with this priority is that breaking the Moscow-Beijing alliance will be extremely difficult. Trump is something of an anomaly in U.S. politics, and I don’t think Putin will risk his strategic alliance with China for the sake of an unpredictable Trump — even if Trump speaks poorly of Zelenskyy.

If the strategy to dismantle the Russian-Chinese alliance faces an obvious crisis, Trump will be forced to return to traditional geopolitical alliances. However, in terms of timing — this will definitely not happen quickly.

Overall, I’ll repeat my personal view on any politician, regardless of the country they live in or the circumstances they work under. The legacy of Roosevelt, Chamberlain, Churchill, De Gaulle, Stalin, Hrushevskyi, or Piłsudski is not measured by the emotions they experienced, nor by the number of curses or applause they received, but by the countries and the world they left behind. That is the only criterion that truly matters.

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About the author: Serhiy Taran, political analyst

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.