Wagner soldiers may be preparing false flag provocations against NATO 

He expressed this opinion on the Espreso TV channel

"I believe that the Wagner soldiers will try to carry out provocations on the territory of one of the NATO countries. It could be Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. They are probably preparing false flag provocations. In this way, the Wagner soldiers can provoke the whole of NATO or individual countries to act. And then look at NATO's reaction," Yahun explained.

The SBU Major General believes that Putin may be testing NATO's readiness for more decisive action

"If the reaction to Wagner's provocations is immediate and adequate, then the issue will be closed. However, if the Alliance thinks and debates about how to respond, it will provoke Putin to take more aggressive action. He will see once again that NATO is not ready for a direct confrontation with Russia," he added.

The situation on Poland-Belarus border: what is known

On February 23, Poland stepped up security measures on its border with Russia and Belarus.

In June, a car with Polish border guards, including two officers, came under fire on the Polish border with Belarus. It is currently unknown who fired at the car. On June 16, Polish border guards said the car attack at the border was an escalation of the situation.

Following the mutiny of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June, the Kremlin reported that mercenaries had been relocated to Belarus. On June 27, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country.

In early July, Poland reinforced its border with Belarus with 500 police officers. On July 8, it was reported that additional forces, including more than 1,000 soldiers and about 200 pieces of military equipment, had been sent to the border.

Later, on July 23, self-appointed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced the desire of the mercenaries from the Russian Wagner PMC to "go on an excursion" to Poland. The same day, it was reported that the tenth column of Wagner's mercenaries, which included at least ten pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

On July 27, the National Resistance Center reported that Wagner PMC units were looking for people in Belarus who were ready to fight against Lithuania and Poland. Also the same day Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that the twelfth column of Wagner's PMC, which included at least 50 pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

On July 29, it was reported that Poland and Lithuania might close the border with Belarus due to provocations by the Wagner PMC.

On August 1, the Polish Ministry of Defence confirmed that two Belarusian helicopters had violated the country's airspace near Bialowieza, allegedly during an exercise.

The incident was reported to NATO. The Polish Foreign Ministry also summoned the Charge d'Affaires of Belarus for explanations.

In turn, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus denied the statements of the Polish side, saying that Warsaw needed the allegations of violation of Polish airspace to "justify the build-up of forces and equipment near the Belarusian border".

The monitoring group Belarusian Hajun wrote that the Belarusian helicopters could have done so by accident, as they were guarding self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko, who was staying at the Viskuli residence, 7.5 km from the border.

The Pentagon commented on the violation, stressing that they "take the security of NATO countries very seriously".  

On August 4, the Polish Embassy in Minsk provided the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus with information confirming that two Belarusian military helicopters had violated the airspace.