Putin speaks about successor for first time: what happened?

1. The topic of a successor has been taboo in Russian politics for quite a long time, and the previous presidential elections (March 2024) seemed to have put an end to this issue. However, in Russia, a situation has developed where the taboo on a successor did not prevent the elites from essentially living according to the logic of a power transition.

2. What is the logic of this transition? First and foremost, it lies in a system of global redistribution of property (nationalization). And it appears that this redistribution is happening in the interests of seven families (Chemezov, Patrushev, Kiriyenko, the Rotenbergs, the Kovalchuks, Sechin, and Kadyrov, although in the past year the latter has not received anything). It seems that this group of people is becoming the new nobility. At the same time, the Patrushev-Chemezov tandem remains the most powerful, despite the fact that Patrushev has, de facto, lost his status as overseer of the security forces.

3. It is worth separately noting that the latest catalyst for the topic of a successor was Putin’s special envoy Dmitriev, whom some immediately began to consider a “family appointee” due to his closeness to Putin’s daughter. Also, with a high degree of probability, we can say that Dmitriev himself has faced some obstruction from the “old guard.” At the same time, it is definitely too early to talk about Dmitriev as the family’s appointee.

"4. It is also important to note that Russian society has long been “pregnant” with the idea of a successor. Our sociological research has shown that more than half the population fears that Putin will die without appointing a successor, and a third believe that there is a successor, but he will not be revealed yet because “it’s still too early.”"

But, of course, the opinion of the people is of little interest to Putin in this matter. The main reason for the statement about a successor, apparently, is exclusively connected to elite games.

5. So, what could have triggered this statement? First of all, we must proceed from the fact that there will be no successor in the near future. Secondly, Putin, as before, sees his main political role exclusively as the only possible arbiter. Thirdly, such statements are made for two reasons: either due to insecurity and paranoia, or it is a “trick” like Stalin’s or Mao’s, so that those around him begin to beg him to stay and not go anywhere. At the same time, he will “test the loyalty” of his entourage.

But I repeat: for now, there is no power transition, and Putin is not going to look for a real successor. But the game has already begun. So, the talk about a new Putin has been launched. And we need to remember: our greatest threat is the lack of any ideology other than the ideology of the “Russian world.” 98-99% of Russians, including the apolitical and the “good” ones, are, in one way or another, adherents of this ideology.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.  

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