Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready to strike Belarus. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Russia is shelling Ukraine with freshly made missiles

Russian enemy carries out terror attacks using cruise missiles of various types.  Both bomber aircraft and sea platforms in the Black Sea were used for launching Kalibrs, and Su-35 aircraft launched Kh-59 guided missiles. 72 missiles were launched, 60 were shot down. This is a high indicator of efficiency. They used a new tactic when trying to launch missiles from Engels airfield. And there was information that two cruise missiles fell somewhere in Russia's Volgograd region. Two more cruise missiles exploded somewhere near Kyiv, which indicates that they are not being refined and there are certain technological problems in the missiles.

We do not clearly know the pace of production of Russian missiles, but in previous launches there were missiles that were produced in the 4th quarter of this year.  This means that missiles are used almost immediately after production and this is a sign of exhaustion of new missile production.

Gepard anti-aircraft guns are used to shoot down drones. This is reasonable enough, 5-6 shots are enough to down a Shahed drone. System is equipped with its own radar, which itself captures the target and automatically determines the course of how best to shoot it down. 3 to 10 shells are guaranteed to destroy this drone.

Dzhankoy is the most important point for Russians in Crimea

Russians cannot feel safe on Crimean peninsula. I think that strikes on Dzhankoy will continue. The enemy’s most important point is there, so the accumulation of significant amount of artillery and equipment is ongoing. In Sovietske, the personnel were destroyed. We do not know what weapons were used. I think that a limited number of these weapons also affects the rate of destruction of Russians in Crimea.

Ukrainian Armed Forces form a battlefield in the south

Within the week, 10 Russian targets were struck in southern Ukraine. All of them relate to the logistics route from Volnovakha to Melitopol. the most tellin were the strikes on Melitopol when 200 Russian soldiers were liquidated. Part of the leadership of 58th Army, which is responsible for conducting operations on this part of the front, was destroyed there. In Berdiansk, personnel and ammunition depots were destroyed. These strikes are forerunner of further offensive actions and formation of the battlefield due to dilution of management and logistical structures. On the right bank of Dnipro River, this process lasted up to three months. I think dynamics here will continue, but I would not rush ahead to say whether it will be directly related to the offensive Zaluzhnyi told about in his interview. He talked about the need for 300 tanks, which is half of what all European armies have, as of now. The question of reserves now comes to the fore. And this was a clear hint to partners.

It will be very difficult for Russians to fight in the streets of Bakhmut

When we talk about the front line from Yakovlivka to Kordiumivka - it is extremely active and there are intense battles at every section. In the north (Yakovlivka), Russian troops are trying to gain a foothold, but Ukrainian Armed Forces repel them and they are trying to enter there again. Russian forces are trying to attack Soledar, there are attempts to advance between Klishchiivka and Opytne to bypass Bakhmut from the west. This whole dynamic isn't terribly complicated. This front line is held despite the fact that Russian troops are trying to concentrate a significant amount of artillery and personnel on a narrow section of the front. The rotation of Ukrainian Armed Forces’ units took place. During 200 days of active offensive Russian forces advanced only a certain small distance in kilometers.

In Bakhmut itself, Russian forces are trying to make an offensive from the east - they are advancing along the track, but this is within one kilometer. When the enemy attempts to enter suburban buildings, battles start and Ukrainian troops repel the attack. Russian troops destroyed the bridge that provided communication from the Soledar side. Bakhmut is reliably secured from the west, there is no reason to worry about a complete ring around the city and surrounding it. It will be extremely difficult for the Russian military to fight in suburban buildings. Here are all the prerequisites for battles in the city to become a meat grinder for the enemy. Russian troops do not have forces to capture the city and move further.

Ukrainian Armed Forces make progress in Luhansk region, but dynamics have slowed down

This week's situation in the Luhansk region was difficult - bad weather and everything turned into mud. But before that there were several frosty days - actions were taken in an attempt to surround Svatove and expand the gray zone near Kreminna. Dibrova is one of the settlements that provides access to the Krasna River, which divides Kreminna in half.  Later, this will allow an operation to surround Kreminna. The enemy drove a significant number of personnel into the entire area of ​​Svatove-Kreminna. Now the dynamics have slowed down a bit - due to Russian forces and weather. As soon as it freezes a little, perhaps this will be one of the important directions that General Zaluzhnyi alludes to when he talks about creating conditions for an offensive somewhere.

New blow from Belarus will not come as surprise

The threat of attack from Belarus on Kyiv or in the direction of Lviv, one way or another, is raised at the expert level. Leadership of Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff says there are no prerequisites for creation of an offensive group yet, although dynamics are quite alarming. Even General Zaluzhnyi says he does not rule out an attack on Kyiv. We understand that this is the use of potential which will gradually be formed in Belarus. Now the actions of Belarus are so predictable that it will not be a surprise, as in February.  This time, both Belarus and Belarusian army will receive significant blow from our side to discourage them from using their territory to encroach on Ukraine. Territory of this country was used by the aggressor, Belarusian instructors train Russians, and strikes are carried out from the territory of Belarus. This requires action in response.

Dynamics at the front will remain: Serhiy Zgurets’ forecast

There will be active actions around Bakhmut.  We will hold this site under any circumstances. Russian troops will unsuccessfully try to surround the city. There will be positive actions of Ukrainian Armed Forces around Kreminna - this is one of the most promising areas. Also, work of artillery and long-range weapons in the south will continue and prerequisites for the offensive will be prepared. Dynamics will be preserved. Movement of units will be limited by lack of frosty weather.