Ukrainian migrants unlikely to return home before 2027

RBC-Ukraine reported the information, citing the National Bank of Ukraine’s Inflation Report.

Outflow slows, but continues

According to the Ukrainian National Bank's July 2025 Inflation Report, the pace of emigration has slowed, but the outflow persists. In the first half of 2025, 60,000 Ukrainians left the country—less than the 200,000 who departed in the same period of 2024. Still, the central bank expects that 200,000 people will leave Ukraine annually in both 2025 and 2026.

Millions remain abroad

The United Nations reports that as of July 1, 2025, 5.6 million Ukrainians are living outside the country. Ongoing Russian attacks and security threats continue to drive people out, while the prospect of returning remains uncertain.

EU protection delays return

The European Union has extended temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 2027. This policy allows Ukrainians to stay, work, and send their children to school in EU countries, making immediate return less likely. The National Bank of Ukraine notes that this extension will delay large-scale repatriation in the medium term.

Return expected only after 2027

The central bank now predicts that a net return of about 100,000 people will occur in 2027, a significant drop from earlier forecasts of 500,000. Many Ukrainians are adapting to life abroad, changing their residency status, and integrating into new communities, which reduces the likelihood of a rapid return.

Risks of further outflow

The report warns that if fighting intensifies or new territories are occupied, migration could increase even further. The loss of population poses ongoing challenges for Ukraine’s workforce and recovery efforts, with the hope for a demographic rebound now pushed further into the future.