"If 50% come back, it will be good": demographer on Ukraine's migration losses
Ukraine's migration losses as a result of Russia's full-scale invasion are very high. The longer the war lasts, the fewer refugees will return home
Oleksandr Hladun, Deputy Director of the Institute for Demography and Life Quality Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, said this in an interview with the Vechirniy Kyiv program.
"Migration is a big problem. If 50% of people return, it will be good. Moreover, we predict that after the war there will be counter migration flows. That is, some women with children will return, and perhaps some men will go to their wives. After the travel bans are lifted," the demographer said.
According to him, the forecast made by Ukrainian experts differs from that made by international organizations, including the IMF. The latter assume that most refugees will return. Ukraine, on the other hand, assumes that there will be fewer people willing to return and that "the demographic situation will deteriorate," Hladun said.
In his opinion, by the beginning of 2037, at most 30.5 million people will live in Ukraine within the 1991 borders.
Earlier, demographer Ella Libanova said that, according to the most optimistic forecast, in 10 years, no more than 35 million people will live in Ukraine within the 1991 borders. In her opinion, Ukraine will still be a poor country in 10 years, and millions of men will leave for their wives if the borders are opened.