Ukraine faces population crisis as numbers could drop to 25 million by 2050

The Washington Post reports that Russia's war against Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians. At least 5 million Ukrainians now live abroad, while another 5 million remain in Russian-occupied territories.

According to Ukraine’s justice minister, the country is witnessing nearly three deaths for every birth.

These population losses — due to war casualties, emigration, and occupation — are reshaping Ukraine’s future. A smaller population could weaken the economy, political stability, and military strength.

Opposition lawmaker Mykola Kniazhytskyi argues that reversing demographic decline is as vital as winning the war, securing a just peace, and joining the EU and NATO.

Official estimates suggest Ukraine’s total population, including occupied areas, is now under 36 million — down from around 41 million before the war. However, real numbers could be even lower.

If current trends continue, the population could drop to 25 million by 2050 and just 15 million by 2100.

To counter this, the government is launching programs to support returning emigrants and increase birth rates, including free fertility treatments for soldiers and their families.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has called for each Ukrainian family to have at least three children, linking population growth to Ukraine’s future prosperity.

Ukraine is not alone in facing demographic challenges. Many developed nations, particularly in Eastern Europe, are seeing population declines due to low birth rates, early mortality, and high emigration. Russia is also experiencing a significant drop in population.

Even before the war, Ukraine had one of the world’s lowest birth rates. Today, young men in their twenties and thirties are in short supply.

Can Ukraine bring its citizens back?

The Ukrainian government hopes many refugees will return after the war, particularly young professionals and women of childbearing age.

Dana Pavlychko, a 37-year-old Oxford MBA graduate, lives in Germany with her husband and three children. She has no plans to return permanently.

“Our kids won’t move back because we don’t want to disrupt their education and lives,” she said. Many Ukrainians abroad feel the same.

A survey by the Center for Economic Strategy found that less than half of Ukrainian refugees plan to return home.

Borys, a software developer living in Western Europe, said he would only return with “a strong, absolute guarantee that Russia won’t attack again.”

“Before the war, I never intended to emigrate,” he said. “But even if Putin is gone, Russia’s hostility toward Ukraine is centuries old.”

To maintain connections with those abroad, Ukraine has established a new ministry dedicated to demographics and diaspora relations.

The government is also launching Unity Hubs in countries with large Ukrainian refugee populations. These centers will help Ukrainians integrate locally or assist them in returning home by providing job opportunities and housing.

Deputy Social Policy Minister Dariia Marchak acknowledges that not all refugees will return, but the goal is to bring back as many as possible.

Ukraine’s labor market faces a severe worker shortage, but many emigrants are unaware of available jobs. “Our job is to make sure they know about opportunities,” Marchak said.

A drastic drop in birth rates

In 2001, Ukraine had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates—1.1 children per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. The war has worsened the crisis.

According to the UN Population Fund, Ukraine’s birth rate fell below 1.0 in 2023.

“The number of people capable of starting families has sharply declined,” said fertility specialist Vitaliy Radko. Many women of reproductive age have left the country, while many men are fighting, wounded, or dead.

Even those who remain face economic hardship and psychological stress, making family planning difficult.

A shrinking but more advanced Ukraine?

Timofiy Mylovanov, head of the Kyiv School of Economics, believes post-war Ukraine must transition into a smaller but more technologically advanced nation focused on defense, agriculture, and innovation.

However, he argues that immigration will be essential to counteract an aging and shrinking population.

Ukraine’s 2001 census showed over 95% of its population was White and Slavic. Introducing new ethnic groups could lead to debates over national identity.

At a recent conference on Ukraine’s demographic crisis, some participants called for preserving the country’s cultural and ethnic makeup.

Mylovanov disagrees. Given Russia’s ongoing threats, he believes Ukraine must embrace immigration to sustain its workforce and military.

“We live next to a neighbor who wants to wipe us out. We need an army, if we want to exist — that means a lot of people,” he said.