Speculations are rife about Ukrainian counteroffensive

CNN writes about it. 

The silence is significant as Ukraine has concealed the start of its critical counteroffensive. Last week, Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister, Hanna Maliar, announced that the counteroffensive would not be declared. Russia has also refrained from discussing Ukrainian momentum, possibly to avoid demoralizing its troops, the article says. 

CNN reminds that the US-based Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian military bloggers mentioned small Ukrainian landings near Kherson. It remains unclear how significant the landings were and how they fit into Ukraine's broader plan. But Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson, Natalia Humeniuk, requested "patience" and said little else due to the operation's safety requirements.

According to the article, in the last 10 days, Ukraine has been quiet about the Zaporizhzhia area, which is crucial for its counteroffensive to separate occupied Crimea from eastern Ukraine and Russia. Pro-Russian bloggers have suggested Ukrainian advances in some areas, but evidence is unclear and their reliability is questionable.

Russian aviation is targeting what it believes are Ukrainian military hubs, bombarding empty buildings such as a sports school and a farming warehouse in Orikhiv, and hitting Vuhledar with heavy airstrikes. The high stakes of the upcoming weeks are reflected in the intense and indiscriminate Russian firepower, CNN journalists believe. 

“It is a decisive moment in the war for the Kremlin,” the text reads. Putin has visited the theater of war and airborne forces have been prepared for defense with winding trenches and defenses. The fight for Bakhmut has been costly for both sides, and Russia's leaders have publicly invested what little resources they have left in gaining control of the strategically minor city. It has been mauled beyond recognition, and even if Russia gains control over it – it would be the victor over uninhabitable rubble.

It is a fact that Ukrainian gains in Zaporizhzhia could deal a powerful blow to Russia's wider campaign by severing the land corridor between occupied Donbas and Crimea, which would split Russia's occupation in two and endanger its military in Crimea. Losing this territory would reveal Russia's strategic incompetence. 

NATO's support for Ukraine has been strong, but CNN assumes it may not last beyond this year. Ukraine has the momentum with better weapons and better training from NATO than ever before and must have real-time information from Western allies. The silence from the Zaporizhzhia front line suggests a crucial step is underway, the article concludes.