Slovakia’s Russia sanctions veto: Why Fico will likely back down

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel, an expert in foreign relations, shared his analysis of the situation, emphasizing that Fico’s resistance is faltering under both internal and external pressure.

The first sign is the mounting cost of the blockade for Fico's government. As Resurgam noted earlier, “The European Anti-Fraud Office has filed over 300 complaints with the European Public Prosecutor’s Office and the European Commission over Slovakia’s misuse of EU funds.”

This development was quickly followed by direct talks between CDU leader Friedrich Merz and Fico. According to German sources, they are convinced Fico will soon relent — though for now, he continues to stall.

At the same time, reports submitted to the European Parliament accuse Slovakia of serious violations: misuse of EU funds, undermining democratic norms, and documented repression of national minorities.

The European Parliament’s Committee on Budgetary Control published a highly critical report accusing Slovakia of failing to protect EU money and weakening democratic oversight. This report may become the basis for freezing EU funds to Slovakia, particularly within the new Multiannual Financial Framework.

If that happens, Slovakia’s budget deficit could spike to 6–7% of GDP — a serious blow for a country where 15% of GDP relies on EU funding.

As the Resurgam author underlined, “Without subsidies and compensation, SMER’s key voters — farmers and rural communities — will be the first to suffer.”

Fico’s ongoing confrontation with Brussels, especially with Berlin, could prove politically disastrous.

The second sign is Fico’s rhetorical shift toward excuses. He now claims, “We have done everything we can, but we cannot block it any longer.”

This echoes Viktor Orbán’s tactics: first loud resistance to EU initiatives, followed by public backpedaling once pressure mounts.

Fico himself has started laying the groundwork for retreat, saying, “The obsession with Russia is so great that we have no chance of pressuring the Commission… Even if we vote against it a hundred times.”

He added bitterly, “Those who want to live with wolves must howl with them,” calling this the “cruel reality of the current union.”

According to Resurgam, this is essentially a pretext for Fico to justify surrendering on a position he previously called “a fundamental interest of Slovakia.”

“I am convinced that, with a high degree of probability, sanctions against Moscow will be adopted by the end of the month — and likely much earlier — along with the EU’s final decision to abandon Moscow’s energy resources,” the Resurgam author concluded.

As for Malta’s objection, the analysis suggests this is Moscow’s attempt to bolster Fico by using Malta’s interest in oil transit revenues. But if Fico caves, Malta won’t risk political fallout — especially if Berlin turns its attention to Valletta after dealing with Bratislava.