Russian forces in south Ukraine may show 'goodwill gesture' in late fall – Defense Express expert

Defense Express expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi said this on Espreso TV. 

"Apparently, we are witnessing a repetition of exactly the same trajectory that was in the Kherson sector. When the Russian forces are trying to impose fighting on some buffer settlements. Thinking that they will exhaust us in this way, but they are rather exhausted themselves. The way the Russians are fanatically clinging to some settlements gives rise to doubts. It seems that the Russians are not confident in their line of fortifications," he said.

According to Kyrychevskyi, one should be prepared for the fact that for a long time (for several weeks) Ukraine's progress will be measured by indicators - "there are partial successes, and that's good."

"Then the Russians will start accumulating losses and mistakes in the command system. We should not rule out a large-scale 'gesture of goodwill' closer to November with a 50/50 probability," the expert concluded.

Ukraine's counteroffensive in the south

On June 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive on the southern frontline, continuing a series of offensive operations near Bakhmut and in other directions.

On June 19, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Maliar reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated Pyatykhatky, Zaporizhzhia region, and advanced up to 7 km in the Tavria direction.

On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

On June 26, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had de-occupied the village of Rivnopil, Donetsk region. It is located in the Volnovakha district of the Donetsk region. The Russian army occupied the village in March 2022.

On July 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy established ten military administrations in the Zaporizhzhia region and appointed their heads.

According to the General Staff on July 13, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct offensive operations on three frontlines - Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdiansk. The General Staff reported that the Ukrainian army had some success in the areas of Novodanylivka - Shyroka Balka; Mala Tokmachka - Novopokrovka.

The Defense Ministry reported that as of July 17, since the beginning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in the Bakhmut sector, the military had liberated an area of more than 30 km². In the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions, almost 180 km² of Ukrainian land were de-occupied.

On July 18, Major Valeriy Shershen, spokesman for the Joint Press Center of the Tavria Defense Forces, said that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are engaged in heavy fighting for Staromaiorsk in the Donetsk region, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces controlling a certain part of the town.

On July 21, the General Staff reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had made progress in the areas of Novodanylivka - Verbove, Novodanylivka - Robotyne and Novodarivka - Pryiutne.