Russian army has no potential for major offensive in Ukraine this year – US intelligence

According to the Voice of America, this was stated by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines at a hearing of the US Senate Intelligence Committee.

“If Russia does not institute a mandatory mobilization and identify substantial third-party ammunition supplies, it will be increasingly challenging for them to sustain even the current level of offensive operations in the coming months. And, consequently, they may fully shift to holding and defending the territories they now occupy,” Haines said, presenting the report on behalf of the U.S. intelligence community.

Haines added that, realizing this, Putin most likely calculates that time works in his favor and that prolonging the war may be his best remaining pathway to eventually security Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine, even if it takes years.

At the same time, Russia has suffered losses as a result of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine that will take years to recover. Therefore, it will now pose less of a military threat to Europe and will not be able to be an active player on the global stage in Eurasia as it was before. However, this may encourage Moscow to use asymmetric methods and seek partners.

"As a result, Russia will rely even more on asymmetric options, such as nuclear, cyber, space, and China," Haines said.

Ukraine, according to Haines, is also suffering heavy casualties in the fighting in the east, which affects its ability to launch a successful counteroffensive later this spring.

She also said that the U.S. intelligence community is involved in the process of documenting Russian war crimes in Ukraine in order to hold Russia and the perpetrators of these crimes accountable for their actions. In particular, we are talking about the bombing of Ukrainian energy facilities and networks, as well as any other non-military facilities, the deportation of Ukrainian citizens to Russia, and the creation of filtration camps.

• Between February 24, 2022, and February 22, 2023, 68,000 Russian war crimes were registered in Ukraine, resulting in the deaths of 9,655 people. The real numbers are much higher