Russia will have less opportunity to control Black Sea - military expert Zgurets

Sea Breeze exercises and the operation of the Ukraine’s Intelligence Service 

On September 11, Sea Breeze exercises began and details of the operation carried out by the Intelligence Service's special forces to free 4 Boyko towers from Russian military equipment became known. They were used as a military facility and had helipads, fuel storage, and relocation stations that controlled the Black Sea. Now all these facilities have been either confiscated or destroyed. According to intelligence officials, Russia has now lost the ability to use these facilities for military purposes and has lost control over the water areas where these towers were located.

Parallel to this, Sea Breeze exercises are taking place, in which all Black Sea countries are participating. These exercises are taking place near Romania, and it was expected that they would be aimed primarily at protecting Romania, but as we can see, the main task so far is mine safety.

They are practicing mine clearance, which is also important in order to ensure security in this part of the Black Sea in terms of the ships' passage. And at the same time, British planes are monitoring to ensure that Russian planes do not threaten those ships that are transporting grain through this corridor towards the Romanian ports. There are positive dynamics in the Black Sea, which means that the Russians will have less and less opportunity to control the Black Sea. 

Advancement of the Ukrainian Army: Tokmak, Berdiansk and Avdiivka directions

Positive dynamics are being formed in the south, in particular, in the Tokmak direction, Ukrainian defenders are taking offensive actions in the direction of Novoprokopivka south of Robotyne, between Robotyne and Verbove, and attacking Verbove itself. There are consolidations on new frontiers there, despite the fact that the Russian forces tried to launch unsuccessful counterattacks in certain areas.

There are also changes in the Berdyansk direction, where the Russian army is being pressured in the areas of Novodonetske and Novomayorske, there is an advance of Ukrainian troops and positive dynamics around Bakhmut, where Ukrainian units are driving the Russians out of Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

There are changes on the front line, they say that the Russian forces are afraid to retreat because they are being shot by their people. At the same time, the fighting in Bakhmut is restraining, because by capturing and destroying such a large group of Russian troops, the enemy cannot move them to other areas.

Also on September 10, the Ukrainian military conducted a brilliant assault operation and captured part of Opytne, thus changing the balance of power around Avdiivka. And what is happening on the front line suggests that we expect further progress in each area, although in certain areas Ukrainian side is carrying out defensive operations, while in the south offensive.

The situation inside the Russian army

Regarding the redeployment of newly formed Russian units that were supposed to appear later, but are already on the front line, Yevhen Dykyi, former platoon commander of the Aidar battalion, civic activist, head of the National Antarctic Research Center, said that the Russia's exhaustion should be divided into two aspects: what the Russians have in terms of manpower and what they have in terms of iron.

He said that they currently have an acute shortage of "cannon fodder" at the front, and that is what the Ukrainian command is currently relying on. The Russian army can resolve this issue with a new wave of mobilization, but it will take 4 to 6 months, and this is what should be used now.