Russia will certainly not capture Avdiivka, at least in fall-winter period - Reserve Colonel Svitan
Roman Svitan, military expert, Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel in reserve, military pilot-instructor, noted that there will be no large-scale third wave of Russia's offensive on Avdiivka due to the rains
He expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.
"The Russians have recently, in about a week, created a couple of bridgeheads north and south of Avdiivka. The establishment of footholds does not mean that they have occupied any territory, but rather that they have conducted forming operations. To the north of the Avdiivka coke plant, the Russian forces are trying to create a bridgehead in the lowlands of the plant, of course, they are afraid to go there, at least with large forces. No more than 10-20 people come out and get hit by Ukrainian artillery, mostly mortars. We are holding them at this foothold, and they cannot move from there at the moment," commented the reserve colonel.
According to him, the situation is the same in the south, from Opytne, where the Russian army is trying to create a bridgehead using quarries located near Avdiivka. That is, they managed to create a foothold in the gray zone that we are shelling. However, Russian soldiers cannot deploy on that foothold, especially since it is raining now. As long as it rains, this situation will continue.
"Therefore, the maximum that the Russians will be able to do with their artillery and aviation is to blow up Avdiivka, meaning that they will demolish 3-4 houses every day, destroying them almost to the ground. They will turn Avdiivka into a lunar landscape, just like Marinka, where there is not a single house left. As for the large-scale third wave that everyone is talking about and waiting for, there will be no more serious clashes with equipment due to the rains. And we destroy Russia's manpower in sufficient numbers. No matter how hard the Russians try, they will not be able to take Avdiivka, at least in the fall and winter, and they will not bring their equipment to the fields before the frost. It is not known whether there will be frosts, and these autumn rains can only subside in the spring," noted Roman Svitan.
- On October 30, the head of the Avdiivka city military administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said that the invaders were regrouping near Avdiivka. A new wave of assaults is expected in the coming days.
- The Institute for War Studies noted that the Russian occupation forces are probably preparing for another wave of ground attacks near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, despite their heavy losses. Later, Barabash said that there was no third wave of attacks on Avdiivka yet, but the Russian army was keeping the tension around the city.
- On November 8, it was reported that the last 16 employees of the Avdiivka Coke Plant had been evacuated.
- Estonian intelligence chief Ants Kiviselg said that Russians will try to capture Avdiivka by the end of the year, despite the fact that the city has no strategic importance.