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OPINION

Zelenskyy’s Istanbul visit poses risk to European alliance

12 May, 2025 Monday
17:29

A 30-day ceasefire is not just some preliminary condition or a demonstration of the seriousness of the parties' intentions, but the only (albeit weak) chance that the war can be stopped

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It's simple. The positions of the parties are extremely far apart (and the Americans have realized this — despite hypocritical statements from Witkoff and Trump).

Thanks to Trump's brilliant negotiation strategy, the Ukrainians have already used nearly all the limits of compromise (refusal of NATO and acknowledging part of the territory as occupied), but Putin has not renounced any of his conditions, which practically means Ukraine's surrender of its sovereignty.

Thanks to the inventiveness of Europeans, in recent days an additional argument has appeared — an international tribunal — which will almost certainly be sacrificed if it comes to a real compromise. But it's not enough.

"Currently, there is a chasm between the positions of the parties, and the chance of reaching any agreement is zero."

This is why the idea of starting with a 30-day ceasefire emerged. Kellogg commented on it simply: for Putin, it will be hard to back out (it's like starting the war again, and it could provoke a negative reaction from everyone, even the Chinese — K.V.).

That's why, as I said earlier, it's the only chance to "start ending" the war. Despite the provocations and violations from the Muscovites, it's unlikely that they will return to bombing cities or mass attacks in such a situation.

Going to negotiations without meeting this condition is guaranteed to lead to failure. That's why I don't quite understand Zelenskyy's position.

Well, okay, if this is a coordinated attempt with the Europeans to get the "final" argument for Trump to join new sanctions and provide Ukraine with new weapons, it still might make some sense.

But if this is Zelenskyy's self-confident hope in his "personal charm," he is causing serious harm to us by violating the agreed position of the Europeans.

Source

About the author: Karl Volokh, public figure, blogger.

The editorial board doesn't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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