Estonian intelligence assesses combat capability of North Korean military in Russia's war on Ukraine

ERR reported this.

Kiviselg noted that, according to Ukrainian intelligence, 3,000 soldiers from the 11th Army Corps of the North Korean Armed Forces, including several hundred North Korean special forces, have arrived in the Kursk region.

‘These servicemen probably arrived in the Russian Federation in early October, where they underwent preliminary training in the Eastern Military District, which lasted from two to four weeks, after which they began their redeployment to the Ukrainian front,’ he explained.

According to him, North Korea is expected to send 10,000 to 12,000 troops to Russia, including 500 officers and three generals, who will arrive at the Ukrainian front in stages.

‘The next North Korean units will arrive at the Ukrainian front in the coming weeks,’ Kiviselg said.

The Estonian intelligence chief stressed that, as a rule, North Korean soldiers are trained to fight in mountainous terrain, which means they are not familiar with Ukrainian territory, its climate and geography.

‘And similarly, their training does not require them to fight in such conditions. The training they receive in the Russian Federation is certainly not of a very high level. So we can expect North Korean units to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine,’ Kiviselg explained.

He suggested that the North Korean army's losses could exceed those of Russian troops so far.

Despite the expected ineffectiveness, Kiviselg does not rule out North Korea's continued supply of troops to Russia and Ukraine. He noted that the continued deployment of significant DPRK forces could eventually affect the situation at the front. However, for now, the impact of North Korean troops is estimated to be insignificant.

Military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK

On October 4, the Kyiv Post reported that 20 soldiers were killed in a missile strike on occupied Donetsk, including six North Korean military personnel advising the Russian army.

The South Korean Defense Minister warned on October 8 that North Korea may deploy troops to Ukraine in support of Russia.

At an October 17 press conference in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed Russia's plan to train 10,000 North Korean soldiers for combat in Ukraine.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, later reported that 11,000 North Korean infantrymen are training in eastern Russia, preparing for deployment to Ukraine. He added that the first unit of 2,600 soldiers is en route to Kursk, where Ukraine has established a stronghold.

Ukraine has since shared intelligence with NATO about North Korea’s military involvement and requested data from alliance members.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that the participation of the North Korean military in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia would mean a “significant escalation.” 

Later, it was reported that South Korea was considering providing Ukraine with military and intelligence assistance in response to North Korea's sending its military to fight on the side of Russia.

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reported that on October 23, the North Korean military was spotted in the Kursk region.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that according to intelligence, the first North Korean military would be used by Russia in combat zones on October 27-28.

On October 25, South Korea's intelligence agency announced that North Korea plans to send a second batch of its military personnel to Russia, totaling up to 10,000 people.

Later, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the presence of North Korean troops in the Kursk region of Russia, noting that this was “a significant escalation in the DPRK's ongoing involvement in Russia's illegal war.”

During the Ukraine-Northern Europe summit, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Russian army is already using North Korean soldiers on the territory of Ukraine.