Ukraine-Russia ceasefire prospects remain unclear after Riyadh talks — ISW

ISW reported the information.

Representatives of the United States, Ukraine, and Russia reached some agreements on a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea and regarding energy infrastructure targets. However, there are no official signed documents that clearly define the terms of the agreement yet.

ISW analysts, after reviewing statements by Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and official Kremlin representatives, concluded that the parties have not agreed on whether the ceasefire came into effect as of March 25.

Putin and Trump's role in negotiations

According to ISW, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin refuses to accept the temporary ceasefire on the front line proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although he has agreed to a partial ceasefire concerning energy infrastructure and the Black Sea.

Analysts emphasize that Putin is delaying and showing intransigence, which complicates Trump’s efforts to achieve a lasting peace settlement.

Sanctions issue and Kremlin's response

ISW also emphasizes that the U.S. did not provide Russia with sanctions relief, as was the case during the signing of the "grain deal" in July 2022. The institute believes that to restore Russia’s access to international agricultural and fertilizer markets, the United States will likely need to cooperate with the European Union to lift some restrictions.

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the U.S. is considering the possibility of lifting some sanctions against Russia.

However, ISW stresses that neither the "grain deal" nor the ceasefire in the Black Sea requires prior sanctions relief.

Kremlin, U.S., and Ukraine statements show discrepancies

Analysts have noted that the official statements from the Kremlin are vague and include demands for a ceasefire that are not mentioned in the statements from the U.S. and Ukraine.

In particular, Russian communiqués do not specify which sanctions the Kremlin wants to lift, which financial institutions and companies should be exempt from sanctions, who will oversee the sanctions relief process, and how compliance will be monitored.

Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. issued separate statements because potential concessions to Moscow on economic restrictions were not discussed during the U.S.-Ukraine negotiations.

ISW concludes that the lack of clear agreements and the ambiguity of the Kremlin’s position may complicate the implementation of the agreements reached and lead to new disagreements between the involved parties.

• On Tuesday, March 25, a new round of talks took place in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, between the Ukrainian and American delegations. Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea.
• President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that on March 25, a ceasefire on energy infrastructure could be implemented, and this issue has been agreed upon with the United States.