Only Trump's presidency offers Putin chance to get back on geopolitical stage

1. Putin’s demands are political, not military

All the rhetoric about “denazification” and “demilitarization” boils down to a political deal in which Ukraine loses its sovereignty and its army. In this context, the war is merely a tool for the Kremlin — a means of pressuring Ukraine into signing whatever is demanded of it. This can only be achieved through negotiations, which makes it critical for Putin to keep the talks going.

2. The war has led to Russia’s isolation

The country has become a pariah in the international community, and an arrest warrant has been issued for Putin. The Russian government now frames even a trip to Mongolia as a major diplomatic victory — simply because he wasn’t arrested and was allowed to return home.

But the war wasn’t launched to end in isolation. On the contrary, the full-scale invasion was seen as a way out of it. Since 2014 — especially after the downing of the Malaysian Boeing — Russia had been gradually excluded from global affairs. A “weekend-long victory war” was meant to return it to the ranks of respected global powers. We now see how that turned out.

And only a Trump presidency offers Putin a chance to get back on the geopolitical stage. He knows it — and he’s holding onto that chance.

3. Russia also wants security guarantees

Paradoxically, it’s not just Ukraine that wants guarantees Russia won’t invade again — Russia wants guarantees too. Specifically, that the occupied territories will remain under its control permanently, even after Putin’s death. And the only actor capable of providing such guarantees is the United States.

We’ve seen how carefully Putin tries to preserve the appearance of “legal legitimacy” for his crimes: Crimea and Zaporizhzhia were “annexed” via “referendums,” the war is a “special military operation in accordance with the UN Charter,” and they are not “capturing territory” but “reclaiming it.”

This veneer of legal justification matters to Putin. That’s why he won’t walk away from negotiations initiated by the U.S.

4. The negotiation process is a value in itself for Putin

Talks are not just a tool to rehabilitate Russia’s pariah status. After Mongolia, there could be Washington. But more importantly, Putin wants to sign a deal — ideally with Ukraine, or better yet with the United States — that will formalize his “victory” and “restore Russia’s greatness.”

Among all of Trump’s ultimatums, the most painful for Putin is the threat to abandon negotiations and return to Biden’s approach. This explains the short ceasefires and the attempts to revive the Istanbul format.

For a long time, everything seemed to be going “as planned”: Trump made threats but didn’t act. But then came a sudden shift — a dozen bunker-busting bombs dropped on Iran. That changed the game — both in Putin’s eyes and in Trump’s own self-perception.

Now Putin is forced to find a way to keep the war going while still maintaining the U.S. president’s interest in negotiations. Judging by reports from India, it’s not going particularly well so far.

Source

About the author: Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament.

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.